Actuele ESTOFEX-verwachting
Estofex is een collectief van meteorologen en meteorologiestudenten, dat iedere dag een verwachting uitgeeft voor convectief weer in Europa. Hoewel de organisatie niet als oogmerk heeft om te waarschuwen, wordt de verwachting wel beschouwd als zeer uitgebreid en waardevol voor menig onweerverwachting. Hieronder kun je de meest recente verwachting zien die door Estofex is uitgeschreven. De verwachting is in het Engels opgesteld.
1
Storm Forecast
Geschreven door: TUSCHY
Geldig vanaf: 12 nov. 07:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 13 nov. 07:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
Geldig vanaf: 12 nov. 07:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 13 nov. 07:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
A level 1 was issued for Portugal and far NW Spain mainly for heavy rain and an isolated strong gust/tornado event.
A level 1 was issued for Cyprus mainly for heavy rain. An isolated tornado is possible.
SYNOPSIS
An stationary wave pattern evolves over SW Europe, featuring an anomalous intense upper trough W of the Iberian Peninsula and a building ridge over the CNTRL Meidtrranean. This pattern results in a multi-day heavy rain risk for Portugal/Spain.
A COL evolves over NW Europe with a captivated warm front over parts of S/CNTRL UK. Spotty thunderstorms along the western periphery of the warm sector can occur. Another upper trough over SE Europe sparks numerous thunderstorms within a weak background shear setup.
DISCUSSION
Portugal and far NW Spain
A modest atmospheric river event unfolds for the area of interest with TPWs in the mid to upper thirties. A dragging and wavy cold front slowly approaches Portugal from the W but remains just offshore or just inland during the forecast period.
During the day a strong WCB with an embedded 50 kt LL warm jet impacts most of the level 1 with prolonged onshore flow of moist/unstable air and cross-isentropic ascent. Especially for the afternoon hours and during the night, the stage is set for repeatedly onshore moving showers and thunderstorms, which produce heavy rainfall amounts (40-80 l/qm in 12h with local higher peaks). In case thunderstorms cross urban areas for some time, flash flooding is possible.
Beside the rain risk, ample MUCAPE with strong shear support organized updrafts with some graupel and strong gusts. Severe gusts are possible in higher elevations, atop any LL inversion and placed in the warm jet core.
Regarding the tornado risk, especially S Portugal has lingering H85 cap issues, although CIN magnitude varies in NWP guidance. Not much modification is needed for strong LL shear and extreme helical inflow for an evolving tornado risk with any more discrete cell or along line breaks. An isolated event cannot be ruled out. The highest risk runs from far S into SW Portugal.
The general risk continues beyond 06Z.
S Ireland and SW UK
A gradually northward spreading warm sector with ongoing isentropic ascent offers lots of cloudiness and precipitation. Hence the stratification of the warm sector remains rather stable. However a few thunderstorms are possible next to the cold front with healthy rainfall rates and some gusts.
Cyprus
1000 J/kg MUCAPE with 10-15 m/s DLS result in a few better organized multicells with heavy rain and isolated hail.
A level 1 was issued for Cyprus mainly for heavy rain. An isolated tornado is possible.
SYNOPSIS
An stationary wave pattern evolves over SW Europe, featuring an anomalous intense upper trough W of the Iberian Peninsula and a building ridge over the CNTRL Meidtrranean. This pattern results in a multi-day heavy rain risk for Portugal/Spain.
A COL evolves over NW Europe with a captivated warm front over parts of S/CNTRL UK. Spotty thunderstorms along the western periphery of the warm sector can occur. Another upper trough over SE Europe sparks numerous thunderstorms within a weak background shear setup.
DISCUSSION
Portugal and far NW Spain
A modest atmospheric river event unfolds for the area of interest with TPWs in the mid to upper thirties. A dragging and wavy cold front slowly approaches Portugal from the W but remains just offshore or just inland during the forecast period.
During the day a strong WCB with an embedded 50 kt LL warm jet impacts most of the level 1 with prolonged onshore flow of moist/unstable air and cross-isentropic ascent. Especially for the afternoon hours and during the night, the stage is set for repeatedly onshore moving showers and thunderstorms, which produce heavy rainfall amounts (40-80 l/qm in 12h with local higher peaks). In case thunderstorms cross urban areas for some time, flash flooding is possible.
Beside the rain risk, ample MUCAPE with strong shear support organized updrafts with some graupel and strong gusts. Severe gusts are possible in higher elevations, atop any LL inversion and placed in the warm jet core.
Regarding the tornado risk, especially S Portugal has lingering H85 cap issues, although CIN magnitude varies in NWP guidance. Not much modification is needed for strong LL shear and extreme helical inflow for an evolving tornado risk with any more discrete cell or along line breaks. An isolated event cannot be ruled out. The highest risk runs from far S into SW Portugal.
The general risk continues beyond 06Z.
S Ireland and SW UK
A gradually northward spreading warm sector with ongoing isentropic ascent offers lots of cloudiness and precipitation. Hence the stratification of the warm sector remains rather stable. However a few thunderstorms are possible next to the cold front with healthy rainfall rates and some gusts.
Cyprus
1000 J/kg MUCAPE with 10-15 m/s DLS result in a few better organized multicells with heavy rain and isolated hail.
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- Level 1 Waarschuwing
- Portugal en noordwestelijk Spanje: voornamelijk voor zware regenval en geïsoleerde sterke windvlaag/tornado.
- Cyprus: voornamelijk voor zware regenval, geïsoleerde tornado mogelijk.
- SYNOPSIS
- Stationair golfpatroon over zuidwestelijk Europa.
- Intense bovenlucht trog ten westen van het Iberisch Schiereiland.
- Opbouw van een rug over het centrale Middellandse Zeegebied.
- Risico op meerdaagse zware regenval voor Portugal/Spanje.
- Warmtefront over zuid/centraal VK met verspreide onweersbuien mogelijk.
- Trog over zuidoostelijk Europa veroorzaakt talrijke onweersbuien met zwakke windschering.
- DISCUSSIE
- Portugal en noordwestelijk Spanje
- Atmosferische rivier gebeurtenis met TPW's in midden tot hoge dertigers.
- Langzaam naderend koud front vanaf het westen.
- Sterke WCB met ingebedde lage jet van 50 kt beïnvloedt het gebied.
- Onweersbuien en regen zorgen voor zware regen (40-80 l/qm in 12 uur).
- Risico op flitsvloeden bij stedelijke gebieden.
- Voldoende MUCAPE met sterke windschering voor georganiseerde opwaartse stroming en mogelijke sterke windvlagen.
- Mogelijk risico op tornado's, vooral in zuid Portugal.
- Risico blijft na 06Z aanhouden.
- Zuid Ierland en zuidwest VK
- Warmte sector met veel bewolking en neerslag.
- Mogelijk enkele onweersbuien bij het koufront, met regen en windvlagen.
- Cyprus
- 1000 J/kg MUCAPE met 10-15 m/s DLS voor enkele goed georganiseerde multicellen.
- Zware regen en geïsoleerde hagel mogelijk.