Actuele ESTOFEX-verwachting
Estofex is een collectief van meteorologen en meteorologiestudenten, dat iedere dag een verwachting uitgeeft voor convectief weer in Europa. Hoewel de organisatie niet als oogmerk heeft om te waarschuwen, wordt de verwachting wel beschouwd als zeer uitgebreid en waardevol voor menig onweerverwachting. Hieronder kun je de meest recente verwachting zien die door Estofex is uitgeschreven. De verwachting is in het Engels opgesteld.
1
Storm Forecast
Geschreven door: TUSCHY
Geldig vanaf: 3 mei 06:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 4 mei 06:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
Geldig vanaf: 3 mei 06:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 4 mei 06:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
A level 1 was issued for SW France mainly for large hail and a few gusts.
A level 1 was issued for NW Algeria mainly for large hail and a few severe gusts.
A level 1 was issued for S Turkey into Syria mainly for large hail and strong to severe gusts.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
A strong ridge from N Africa to E-CNTRL Europe gets framed by two upper troughs to its W and E with the eastern one over the Aegean Sea/Turkey offering near record low thickness values. This trough gets accompanied by a broad LL vortex, which affects most of Turkey. The western trough however remains quasi-stationary and weak but gets framed by numerous progressive low-ampltiude waves. A rather pronounced short wave is placed over France during the start and shifts gradually NE while increasing its foreward speed (as it approaches the westerlies to the N).
This wave (already present in latest WV data just W of Portugal) crosses a wavy boundary, which runs from SW France to S Denmark, which gets distorted into numerous more or less structured surface waves. One amplifies over Benelux with a small/open warm sector extending into N Germany, which offers modest CAPE (400-800 J/kg MUCAPE) and modest shear (up to 15 m/s DLS). CI in NWP is diffuse with large spread in EPS data, but scattered thunderstorms should evolve with some hail and gust potential, especially in case of a strong BL mass response and more backed LL flow. Betimes, heavy rain is possible on an isolated scale.
Further S into CNTRL France, a trailing cold/warm front produces a broad band with more stratiform rain with the focus for CI residing along its W fringe, e.g. SW into W France. 15-20 m/s DLS overlap and 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE is adequate for numerous robust updrafts during the afteroon/evening hours. Shear profiles are straight with splitting cells forcast. Multicells and a few supercells bring hail with a few large hail events and strong to isolated severe gusts. An isolated tornado event is not ruled out within low LCL plume, but displaced CAPE3 and SRH1 maxima with otherwise more crosswise LL inflow point to a general low-end risk. The main risk seems to evolve W/S of Toulouse into W-CNTRL France.
The level 1 over NW Algria evolves due to onshore flow of a moist marine airmass beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, which creates MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg with very strong 3/6 km shear values (includng looped hodographs). Despite weak forcing on the synoptic scale, ongoig cyclonic SW-erly flow aloft should support numerours organized thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts next to heavy rain.
The same for S Turkey into Syria, where overlapping thermodynamic and kinematic ingredients offer a large hail and severe gust risk.
Over S-UK, a few funnel/short tornado reports are possible along a zonaly oriented convergence zone, as diurnal driven CAPE3 increases in a low LCL setup.
A level 1 was issued for NW Algeria mainly for large hail and a few severe gusts.
A level 1 was issued for S Turkey into Syria mainly for large hail and strong to severe gusts.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
A strong ridge from N Africa to E-CNTRL Europe gets framed by two upper troughs to its W and E with the eastern one over the Aegean Sea/Turkey offering near record low thickness values. This trough gets accompanied by a broad LL vortex, which affects most of Turkey. The western trough however remains quasi-stationary and weak but gets framed by numerous progressive low-ampltiude waves. A rather pronounced short wave is placed over France during the start and shifts gradually NE while increasing its foreward speed (as it approaches the westerlies to the N).
This wave (already present in latest WV data just W of Portugal) crosses a wavy boundary, which runs from SW France to S Denmark, which gets distorted into numerous more or less structured surface waves. One amplifies over Benelux with a small/open warm sector extending into N Germany, which offers modest CAPE (400-800 J/kg MUCAPE) and modest shear (up to 15 m/s DLS). CI in NWP is diffuse with large spread in EPS data, but scattered thunderstorms should evolve with some hail and gust potential, especially in case of a strong BL mass response and more backed LL flow. Betimes, heavy rain is possible on an isolated scale.
Further S into CNTRL France, a trailing cold/warm front produces a broad band with more stratiform rain with the focus for CI residing along its W fringe, e.g. SW into W France. 15-20 m/s DLS overlap and 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE is adequate for numerous robust updrafts during the afteroon/evening hours. Shear profiles are straight with splitting cells forcast. Multicells and a few supercells bring hail with a few large hail events and strong to isolated severe gusts. An isolated tornado event is not ruled out within low LCL plume, but displaced CAPE3 and SRH1 maxima with otherwise more crosswise LL inflow point to a general low-end risk. The main risk seems to evolve W/S of Toulouse into W-CNTRL France.
The level 1 over NW Algria evolves due to onshore flow of a moist marine airmass beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, which creates MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg with very strong 3/6 km shear values (includng looped hodographs). Despite weak forcing on the synoptic scale, ongoig cyclonic SW-erly flow aloft should support numerours organized thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts next to heavy rain.
The same for S Turkey into Syria, where overlapping thermodynamic and kinematic ingredients offer a large hail and severe gust risk.
Over S-UK, a few funnel/short tornado reports are possible along a zonaly oriented convergence zone, as diurnal driven CAPE3 increases in a low LCL setup.
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