Elk gekleurd gebied op de kaart heeft een eigen risiconiveau. Hieronder zie je per gebied waarvoor het niveau is afgegeven.
Niveau 1
Kleine kans
Oost-Frankrijk, Duitsland, Tsjechië
In de namiddag en avond ontstaan zware onweersbuien van Oost-Frankrijk tot Tsjechië. Er is kans op grote hagel, zware windstoten en lokaal veel regen. Supercellen kunnen zich ontwikkelen, met een kleine kans op een tornado.
Grote hagel
Zware windstoten
Extreme neerslag
Tornado's
Niveau 1
Kleine kans
Zuidoost-Frankrijk, Noordwest-Italië
In de nacht ontstaan onweersbuien in Zuidoost-Frankrijk met kans op grote hagel en zware windstoten. Lokaal kan veel regen vallen.
Grote hagel
Extreme neerslag
Zware windstoten
Niveau 1
NL
Kleine kans
Zuidelijke Noordzee, Nederland
In de nacht trekken onweersbuien over de zuidelijke Noordzee richting Nederland. Er is kans op zware windstoten en een enkele tornado.
Zware windstoten
Tornado's
Niveau 1
Kleine kans
West-Rusland
In West-Rusland kunnen zware windstoten en grote hagel voorkomen.
Zware windstoten
Grote hagel
Onweer
NL
50% kans op onweer
Noordzee, Nederland, Duitsland
Onweer
50% kans op onweer
Zwitserland, Frankrijk, Duitsland
Onweer
50% kans op onweer
Zweden
Onweer
50% kans op onweer
West-Rusland
Onweer
50% kans op onweer
Zwarte Zee, Rusland
Onweer
50% kans op onweer
Marokko, Algerije
Onweer
50% kans op onweer
Zweden, Oostzee
Onweer
NL
15% kans op onweer
Noordzee, Nederland, Duitsland
Onweer
15% kans op onweer
West-Rusland
Onweer
15% kans op onweer
Zwarte Zee, Turkije, Georgië
Onweer
15% kans op onweer
Marokko, Algerije
Onweer
15% kans op onweer
Zweden
Onweer
15% kans op onweer
Noorwegen, Zweden
Onweer
15% kans op onweer
Frankrijk, Zwitserland, Duitsland
Deze samenvatting is automatisch gegenereerd op basis van de originele ESTOFEX-outlook en kan afwijken van de bron. Raadpleeg de volledige outlook voor het volledige beeld.
A level 1 was issued for E-CNTRL and far N Germany mainly for an isolated tornado risk.
A level 1 was issued for E France to Czechia mainly for a hail, severe wind gust and isolated heavy rain risk. An isolated tornado risk cannot be ruled out.
A level 1 was issued for SE France into NW Italy mainly for isolated large hail, heavy rain and strong gusts.
A level 1 was issued for parts of the S North Sea and adjacent areas mainly for an isolated gust and tornado risk.
A level 1 was issued for parts of W Russia mainly for severe gusts and hail.
SYNOPSIS
A deep/extensive cyclonic gyre over Scandinavia faces a stalling wave pattern over S Europe with two troughs just W of Portugal and over the E Mediterranean, respectively. Broad ridging resides in-between both troughs.
A steadily intensifying upper jet (with a supergeostrophic boost betimes) affects CNTRL Europe and dictates a confined severe risk just downstream of lowering geopotential heights over NW Europe. The main show will be the passage of a weak IPV filament, which exits the trough over SW Europe NE towards CNTRL Europe and crosses a wavy and zonally aligned boundary, which runs from France to Czechia. IFS-ENS MSLP members show a W/E stretched corridor along the boundary, which points to large uncertainties, where a weak/transient vortex could evolve (if at all).
DISCUSSION
... E France, Luxembourg to Germany into Czechia and N Austria ...
A complex setup is forecast already from the start onwards.
Before noon, N Germany resides in a brisk W-erly flow regime and experiences a weak wave passage from the W with some cooling below 5km AGL. This creates a broad area of EL heights in the 3.5-4.5 km AGL range with 200-400 J/kg MUCAPE in the lowest 3-4km forecast. Despite WAA driven limited diabatic heating, expect initial more stratiform rain to break up into numerous showers along the backside of the wave. Even limited diabatic heating will be enough for healthy showers with organized structures and an isolated thunderstorm event is possible. The main risk would be an isolated tornado risk (even non thundery) e.g. over E CNTRL Germany, where SRH increases to values in excess of 200 m2/s2. This is also covered by strong vorticity tracks in ID2-EPS over E-CNTRL Germany from noon into the afternoon hours, as 20-25 m/s 0-3 km shear overlaps with SRH3 up to 300 m2/s2 and 400 J/kg MUCAPE. A level 1 with partially low thunderstorm coverage was added and a level 1 upgrade for far parts of N Germany was also performed.
The second round of oganized convection occurs with the mentioned IPV passage during later afternoon into the overnight hours from E France towards Czechia. Improved BL moisture along the frontal boundary meets marginally augmented mid-level lapse rates, offering a broad warm sector with MUCAPE in the 500 to local 1000 J/kg range. Point source forecast soundings show impressive kinematics with DLS in the 30 m/s range, 0-3 km shear up to 25 m/s and SRH 3km in the 300-400 m2/s2 range.
Exact DMC evolution remains diffuse as weak synoptic-scale lift meets a partially capped airmass.
During the late afternoon into the evening, there is a slim chance for a few near surface based thunderstorms from the Vosges E towards CNTRL Bavaria/N Czechia and Saxony. If merging cells build into an organized/broad updraft, a long-lived supercell could evolve admits impressive kinematics (20 and 30 m/s 3/6km shear respectively) and long/curved hodographs. Isolated large hail and severe gusts would be the main risk.
Thereafter, the passing wave induces enhanced CI along the boundary, starting during the late afternoon into the evening over NE France and thereafter spreading E towards S Germany/Czechia. Most storms should stay elevated and a few elevated supercells with isolated hail and strong gusts are not ruled out. If convection can build more normal to the non-effective 25-30 m/s 0-3 km shear vector (here: more N to S), we could see a rapidly organizing line segment of convection with embedded supercells and/or bowing segments. If this materializes, we cannot exclude updrafts rooting deeper into the BL, which would improve shear values with an increasing risk of damaging gusts. This has to be monitored closely in nowcast e.g. for descending RIJ surges in radar data. Elevated areas could see a few damaging gusts (e.g. over E-CNTRL Germany). TPWs up to 35 mm also point to isolated heavy rain especially for merging convection.
It has to be emphasized, that past few EZ runs showed stronger LL frontogenesis with better LL moisture build-up during the afternoon hours. This scenario would increase the risk of a few discrete/long-lived supercells with all kind of hazards, includig an isolated tornado risk over S-CNTRL Germany (e.g. S-Hesse to N Bavaria into Czechia). Not much BL modification is needed for an increased severe risk.
Finally, a few overnight thunderstorms also erupt along the Alps, which race E and grow into a few organized cells with hail and gusts.
We also expect agile overnight convection offshore over the S North Sea, which approaches the coast of the Netherlands. A gust and isolated tornado risk exists.
... SE France ...
During the overnight hours, CI is forecast along the Massif Central E during the passage of yet another wave. Thunderstorms erupt in 15 m/s DLS with 1000-2000 J/kg (partially capped) MUCAPE, so a few large hail and severe gust reports are possible (the start of a severe thunderstorm outbreak for the following day).
Finally a level 1 was issued for parts of W Russia mainly for severe gusts and hail.
TUSCHY / ESTOFEX
