Actuele ESTOFEX-verwachting
Estofex is een collectief van meteorologen en meteorologiestudenten, dat iedere dag een verwachting uitgeeft voor convectief weer in Europa. Hoewel de organisatie niet als oogmerk heeft om te waarschuwen, wordt de verwachting wel beschouwd als zeer uitgebreid en waardevol voor menig onweerverwachting. Hieronder kun je de meest recente verwachting zien die door Estofex is uitgeschreven. De verwachting is in het Engels opgesteld.
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2
Storm Forecast
Geschreven door: Pistotnik
Geldig vanaf: 2 jun. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 3 jun. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
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Geldig vanaf: 2 jun. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 3 jun. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
A level 2 and level 1 are issued for a belt from N Spain to Belarus for excessive convective precipitation, large hail and (mainly towards the NW) for severe convective wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
Europe is largely influenced by a meandering zonal flow with a progressive, positively tilted trough and ridge pattern. A pronounced mid-level trough stretches from Scandinavia all the way to the Canary Islands, a mid-level ridge from Algeria to the Ukraine. This configuration results in a moderate to strong WSW-erly 500 hPa flow with an axis from Spain to Belarus. Closer to the surface, a long and wavy frontal boundary aligns with this jet axis. Warm air advection prevails SE of it.
Late in the forecast period, a new strong cyclone approaches the British Isles, reinforcing the old trough.
DISCUSSION
belt from N Spain and SE France to the Alpine region, east-central Europe and Belarus
Steep lapse rates from the Spanish Plateau and - to a lesser degree - from the Pyrenees and the Alps spread ENE-ward over enhanced low-level moisture on the warm side of the frontal boundary. Resulting CAPE on the order of a few hundred to up to 1500 J/kg in conjunction with multiple sources of lift - travelling short-wave troughs, thermal upvalley and upslope wind systems, and outflow boundaries of antecedent convection - create another active thunderstorm day across wide regions, though it is once more difficult to go into detail due to a low consensus of the forecast models.
Isolated to scattered, mostly elevated and partly embedded thunderstorms may already be active in the morning, especially near the frontal boundary. Depending on the timing of the short-wave troughs and the amount of insolation, the formation of new and surface-based storms will quickly ramp up between noon and late afternoon. Deep-layer shear increases from 10 m/s well ahead of the frontal boundary, where CAPE is more plentiful, to 20 m/s and more in its proximity, where CAPE conversely decreases. In general, the CAPE-and-shear space is robust enough to allow multi- to supercellular convection.
The strongest vertical wind shear, and enhanced shear also across the 0-3 km layer, are present near the frontal boundary from S France to Switzerland, SE Germany and the Czech Republic. However, limited CAPE and a lack of insolation are an issue here, therefore convection may be limited and/or embedded in frontal clouds and rain shields. Nonetheless, if discrete and surface-based storms manage to form in pockets of sufficient insolation, they can turn into well-organized multicells and supercells and produce large hail and severe wind gusts - more likely in SE Germany and Czechia than further west. Excessive rain is possible as well in case of training activity.
Further ahead of the frontal boundary, convection will predominantly initiate over the orography but move into flatlands later on. Due to rich low-level moisture, the front-parallel background flow and plentiful opportunities for backbuilding convection over orographic features, excessive rain is in general the strongest concern. This possibly includes a few dangerous flash floods in mountainous terrain. Discrete and/or tail-end storms can turn multi- to supercellular with large hail and perhaps isolated downbursts. The hail hazard is highest where steep lapse rates are advected off the mountains over low-lying terrain, where CAPE may locally approach 2000 J/kg: Most notably in the La Rioja, Navarra and Aragon regions in Spain, in the Piemonte region in NW Italy, in E Austria and in SE Poland. Upscale grwoth into several large clusters is anticipated, which can partly persist well into the night with slowly decreasing severe weather hazards.
Due to remaining forecast uncertainties, large regions are covered with a level 1. The regions with the expected highest storm coverage are upgraded to a level 2.
central Turkey
Scattered, daytime driven thunderstorms are expected in the range of a cut-off low in an environment of low to moderate CAPE and mostly weak vertical wind shear. Isolated rain, hail and wind events events may occur, but will likely be too marginal and too widely scattered for a level 1.
Sweden, Denmark, NW Germany
On the cool side of the frontal zone, some thundery showers will form in response to daytime heating of well-mixed maritime air. Severe weather is unlikely.
SYNOPSIS
Europe is largely influenced by a meandering zonal flow with a progressive, positively tilted trough and ridge pattern. A pronounced mid-level trough stretches from Scandinavia all the way to the Canary Islands, a mid-level ridge from Algeria to the Ukraine. This configuration results in a moderate to strong WSW-erly 500 hPa flow with an axis from Spain to Belarus. Closer to the surface, a long and wavy frontal boundary aligns with this jet axis. Warm air advection prevails SE of it.
Late in the forecast period, a new strong cyclone approaches the British Isles, reinforcing the old trough.
DISCUSSION
belt from N Spain and SE France to the Alpine region, east-central Europe and Belarus
Steep lapse rates from the Spanish Plateau and - to a lesser degree - from the Pyrenees and the Alps spread ENE-ward over enhanced low-level moisture on the warm side of the frontal boundary. Resulting CAPE on the order of a few hundred to up to 1500 J/kg in conjunction with multiple sources of lift - travelling short-wave troughs, thermal upvalley and upslope wind systems, and outflow boundaries of antecedent convection - create another active thunderstorm day across wide regions, though it is once more difficult to go into detail due to a low consensus of the forecast models.
Isolated to scattered, mostly elevated and partly embedded thunderstorms may already be active in the morning, especially near the frontal boundary. Depending on the timing of the short-wave troughs and the amount of insolation, the formation of new and surface-based storms will quickly ramp up between noon and late afternoon. Deep-layer shear increases from 10 m/s well ahead of the frontal boundary, where CAPE is more plentiful, to 20 m/s and more in its proximity, where CAPE conversely decreases. In general, the CAPE-and-shear space is robust enough to allow multi- to supercellular convection.
The strongest vertical wind shear, and enhanced shear also across the 0-3 km layer, are present near the frontal boundary from S France to Switzerland, SE Germany and the Czech Republic. However, limited CAPE and a lack of insolation are an issue here, therefore convection may be limited and/or embedded in frontal clouds and rain shields. Nonetheless, if discrete and surface-based storms manage to form in pockets of sufficient insolation, they can turn into well-organized multicells and supercells and produce large hail and severe wind gusts - more likely in SE Germany and Czechia than further west. Excessive rain is possible as well in case of training activity.
Further ahead of the frontal boundary, convection will predominantly initiate over the orography but move into flatlands later on. Due to rich low-level moisture, the front-parallel background flow and plentiful opportunities for backbuilding convection over orographic features, excessive rain is in general the strongest concern. This possibly includes a few dangerous flash floods in mountainous terrain. Discrete and/or tail-end storms can turn multi- to supercellular with large hail and perhaps isolated downbursts. The hail hazard is highest where steep lapse rates are advected off the mountains over low-lying terrain, where CAPE may locally approach 2000 J/kg: Most notably in the La Rioja, Navarra and Aragon regions in Spain, in the Piemonte region in NW Italy, in E Austria and in SE Poland. Upscale grwoth into several large clusters is anticipated, which can partly persist well into the night with slowly decreasing severe weather hazards.
Due to remaining forecast uncertainties, large regions are covered with a level 1. The regions with the expected highest storm coverage are upgraded to a level 2.
central Turkey
Scattered, daytime driven thunderstorms are expected in the range of a cut-off low in an environment of low to moderate CAPE and mostly weak vertical wind shear. Isolated rain, hail and wind events events may occur, but will likely be too marginal and too widely scattered for a level 1.
Sweden, Denmark, NW Germany
On the cool side of the frontal zone, some thundery showers will form in response to daytime heating of well-mixed maritime air. Severe weather is unlikely.
De onderstaande tekst is automatisch vertaald en aangepast om het beter leesbaar te maken voor onze lezers. De inhoud kan daarom verschillen van de originele tekst. Er kunnen geen rechten worden ontleend aan onze teksten, zie disclaimer.
- Level 2 en level 1 waarschuwingen zijn afgegeven voor een gordel van Noord-Spanje tot Wit-Rusland voor overmatige convectieve neerslag, grote hagel en (voornamelijk richting het noordwesten) voor zware convectieve windstoten.
- Europa wordt grotendeels beïnvloed door een meanderende zonale stroming met een voortschrijdend patroon van troggen en ruggen.
- Een uitgesproken mid-level trog strekt zich uit van Scandinavië tot de Canarische Eilanden, terwijl een mid-level rug zich van Algerije tot Oekraïne uitstrekt.
- Dit resulteert in een matige tot sterke WZW-erly 500 hPa stroming met een as van Spanje naar Wit-Rusland.
- Een golvende frontale grens ligt langs deze jet-as, met warmteadvectie ten zuidoosten ervan.
- Tegen het einde van de voorspelling nadert een nieuwe sterke cycloon de Britse Eilanden, wat de oude trog versterkt.
- Steile gradiënten vanuit het Spaanse Plateau en in mindere mate vanuit de Pyreneeën en de Alpen verspreiden zich NO-waarts over verbeterde lage-niveaus vocht aan de warme zijde van de frontale grens.
- CAPE-waardes van enkele honderden tot 1500 J/kg in combinatie met meerdere bronnen van lift resulteren in opnieuw een actieve onweersdag over brede gebieden.
- Er kunnen geïsoleerde tot verspreide, meest hoger gelegen en gedeeltelijk ingebedde onweersbuien al actief zijn in de ochtend, vooral nabij de frontale grens.
- Afhankelijk van de timing van de kortgolvige troggen en de hoeveelheid zonnestraling, zal de vorming van nieuwe grondgebonden stormen snel toenemen tussen de middag en de late namiddag.
- Diepe-laag-shear varieert van 10 m/s ruim voor de frontale grens tot meer dan 20 m/s in de nabijheid ervan.
- Het CAPE-en-shear gebied is robuust genoeg voor multi- tot supercellulaire convectie.
- De sterkste verticale windschering en verbeterde schering in de 0-3 km laag zijn aanwezig nabij de frontale grens van Zuid-Frankrijk tot Zwitserland, Zuidoost-Duitsland en Tsjechië.
- Verder voor de frontale grens vindt convectie plaats over de orografie, maar beweegt later naar vlaktes.
- Door de rijke lage-niveau vochtigheid is overmatige regenval de grootste zorg, met mogelijke gevaarlijke plotselinge overstromingen in bergachtig terrein.
- Bij discrete of uiteindelijke stormen kunnen deze multi- tot supercellulair worden met grote hagel en mogelijk geïsoleerde downdrafts.
- Grote hagel is het meest waarschijnlijk in specifieke regio's zoals La Rioja, Navarra, Aragon (Spanje), Piemonte (NW Italië), E Oostenrijk en SE Polen.
- Verwacht wordt dat zich meerdere grote clusters ontwikkelen, die deels in de nacht kunnen aanhouden, met langzaam afnemende ernstige weersverschijnselen.
- Vanwege onzekerheden in de voorspelling zijn grote gebieden gedekt met een level 1. De regio's met de verwachte hoogste stormdekking zijn naar level 2 opgewaardeerd.
- Verspreide, overdag gedreven onweersbuien worden verwacht binnen het bereik van een afgescheiden lage drukgebied met een omgeving van lage tot matige CAPE en meestal zwakke verticale windschering.
- Geïsoleerde regen-, hagel- en windgebeurtenissen kunnen voorkomen, maar zullen waarschijnlijk te marginaal en te verspreid zijn voor een level 1.
- Aan de koele zijde van de frontale zone zullen enkele buien met onweer ontstaan als reactie op dagverwarming van goed gemixte maritieme lucht.
- Er wordt geen ernstig weer verwacht.
SYNOPSIS
DISCUSSION
Belt van Noord-Spanje en Zuidoost-Frankrijk tot het Alpengebied, Oost-Centraal Europa en Wit-Rusland
Centraal Turkije
Zweden, Denemarken, NW Duitsland
2
Storm Forecast
Geschreven door: TUSCHY
Geldig vanaf: 3 jun. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 4 jun. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
Geldig vanaf: 3 jun. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 4 jun. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
A level 2 was issued for parts of E/NE Spain into far SW France mainly for large to very large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain.
Numerous level 2 areas were issued across S-CNTRL France all the way into far NW Italy, over far NE Switzerland into S Germany and N Austria, another one over SE Austria into W Hungary and finally a small one over NE Italy mainly for large to very large hail, swaths of severe gusts and heavy rain. An isolated tornado event is possible.
A level 2 was issued across the N Ukraine and far S Belarus for large to very large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain. An isolated tornado event is possible.
A level 2 was issued for far E Slovakia into far SW Ukraine and far E Hungary mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and heavy rain.
All level 2 areas are surrounded by a broad level 1 with similar hazards but lowered probabilities for all kind of severe.
A level 1 was issued for parts of the Atlas Mountains for large hail and severe donwbursts.
SYNOPSIS
A strengthening and blocking ridge becomes established over SE Europe, which faces a constantly deepening cyclonic gyre over far NW Europe into Iceland. Latest EZ-ENS data has a rather tightly clustered MSLP member cloud in the 970-975 hPa range for this vortex, which is rather low/impressive for this time of year. This vortex gets not only framed by the mentioned positive height anomalies over SE Europe but also by another area of positive anomalies over the far E-CNTRL (subtropical) NE Atlantic. This configuration results in an extensive belt of at least two anomalous strong upper jets, one exiting E towards NW Russia with another one approaching from the NE Atlantic.
Most of Europe resides in a cyclonic W/SW-erly mid/upper flow regime, which partially overlaps with an extensive CAPE plume admit constantly improving BL moisture along a zonally aligned synoptic-scale front (which runs from N Spain to S-CNTRL Germany and E towards the Ukraine). This front serves as main focus for DMC activity on a national scale.
DISCUSSION
Spain
Most of Spain resides beneath an upper trough, which temporarily opens up into a wave before merging back into the polar front jet.
CNTRL parts of Spain see weak shear beneath the vortex and slow moving/clustering convection occurs in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and less than 10 m/s DLS. Heavy rain/large amounts of small hail and a few strong downburst gust are forecast.
Kinematics improve steadily towards E/NE Spain, where MUCAPE pushes into the 1000-1500 J/kg range with DLS between 20-25 m/s and up to 15 m/s 0-3 km shear (peak overlap next to the coast). Numerous long-lived multicells and supercells with large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain are forecast. Splitting cells are anticipated as backed wind profiles cause rather straight/elongated hodographs. Destructive intereference of cells occurs, which lowers longevity of any cell but any longer-lived (semi-)discrete supercell could produce even an isolated very large hail event in excess of 5 cm in diameter. This activity weakens beyond sunset.
S-CNTRL / E France, S Germany into Switzerland, Austria and N Italy
Sliding the boundary E towards France, we see a broad belt of 800-1500 J/kg MUCAPE overlapping with 15 m/s DLS and 0-3 km shear in the 10-15 m/s range. Weak ridging aloft keeps CI in check until noon/early afternoon before a passing weak wave and diabatic heating/the orography itself cause scattered CI. Most likely areas for CI reside along the Pyrenees N into SW France but also along the Massif Central E towards Switzerland and far NW Italy.
WAA along/S of the front enlarges hodographs, which show better LL curvature especially towards E-CNTRL France but also over far NW Italy (forced by the orography). CAPE/shear space supports numerous multicells and a few long-tracked supercells. Diffuse background forcing should assist in more discrete CI with a mix of classic to HP supercells as upper winds abate. Expect large to isolated very large hail, heavy rain and strong to severe gusts the main risk but modest 0-3 km CAPE, LCLs around 500-700 m and slightly enhanced LL shear along the front itself also indicate an isolated tornado risk, especially towards E-CNTRL France into far W Switzerland.
Towards NE Switzerland into Austria and far S Germany, CAPE shear space resembles the parameters further W, although CAPE remains a bit less bullish. ICON however increases 0-3 km shear into the 20 m/s range from Switzerland into S Germany, which would enlarge the lower parts of the hodograph, offering lots of strong SR inflow, with ICON pushing into the 30 kt 0-2 km SR inflow range. Lots of shear for sure for a mix of multicells, bowing segments and a few supercells with all kind of hazards possible including large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain but also an isolated tornado event. We added this area into a level 2 for the chance of a few long-trakced cells with all kind of hazards including hail larger 5 cm in diameter.
SE Austria into Hungary
Another favorable area for organized multicells and a few supercells exists in the mentioned area although there could be an issue with increasing CIN as convection moves away from the orography. EZ remain more bullish with the cap, whereas ICON indicates only weak CIN. As convection taps into a plume of very unstable air into far W Hungary, upscale growth into a longer-lived bow echo is a possibility with up to 15 m/s 0-3 km shear forecast. The main hazard in this area of interest will be large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain. An isolated tornado event during the more (semi) discrete phase is possible. This is more a borderline level 2 event and depends on the final magnitude of the cap.
NE Italy
Although CI could be an issue with weak background lift, we expect at least isolated thunderstorms to evolve in the level 2 area. This activity shifts into 1500 J/kg MUCAPE with 15 m/s DLS, which is enough for a few well organized multicells and isolated supercells with large hail and severe gusts next to heavy rain.
Parts of E Slovakia to W/N Ukraine and far S Belarus
Yet another area along the front, which experiences plenty of CAPE for deep updrafts with MUCAPE pushing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range including local higher peaks. DLS increases up to 15 m/s next to the SE ward shifting cold front with similar peaks in the 0-3 km layer, so a mix of multicells/bowing segments and a few supercells is forecast with large hail (isolated very large hail not ruled out), severe downbursts and heavy rain on a local scale. Due to the high coverage of severe with a few extreme (hail/wind) events not ruled out, another level 2 upgrade was performed for N Ukraine into S Belarus. Betimes, a structuing LL depression, widespread CI and an improving outflow connection to the right entrance region of an upper jet streak over NW Russia could support upscale growth into a large cluster of storms, like an MCS and even further structuring into a long-lived MCV event is possible, which shifts into Russia during the overnight hours before starting a gradual weakening trend. A broad area of heavy rain could evolve along the N/NW fringe of the progressive surface low, which crosses the far N Ukraine E and places far SE Belarus in the highest risk for heavy rain on the broader scale.
E-Slovakia was also upgraded as a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE interacts with 15 m/s DLS. A passing wave adds enough background lift for scattered to widespread CI with a mix of multicells and a few supercells. Large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain become the main issue. This activity grows upscale into a SEward shifting cluster betimes.
Poland into the Baltic States
Placed N of the surface front and affected by rather strong subsidence behind an eastward departing mid/upper wave, isolated to scattered CI is still anticipated beyond noon in a more or less uncapped airmass. 300-600 J/kg MUCAPE and strong DLS are enough for a few organized thunderstorms with rotating updrafts, which cause some hail, gusty winds and instances of heavy rain. An isolated tornado event cannot be ruled out especially from NE Poland into NW Belarus and SE Lithuania, where confidence for CI is a bit higher. We covered this area in a broad level 1.
N Algeria
A few thunderstorms erupt along the orogaphy with lots of mid-level CAPE and adequate shear for a few rotating updrafts with large hail and severe downbursts.
Numerous level 2 areas were issued across S-CNTRL France all the way into far NW Italy, over far NE Switzerland into S Germany and N Austria, another one over SE Austria into W Hungary and finally a small one over NE Italy mainly for large to very large hail, swaths of severe gusts and heavy rain. An isolated tornado event is possible.
A level 2 was issued across the N Ukraine and far S Belarus for large to very large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain. An isolated tornado event is possible.
A level 2 was issued for far E Slovakia into far SW Ukraine and far E Hungary mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and heavy rain.
All level 2 areas are surrounded by a broad level 1 with similar hazards but lowered probabilities for all kind of severe.
A level 1 was issued for parts of the Atlas Mountains for large hail and severe donwbursts.
SYNOPSIS
A strengthening and blocking ridge becomes established over SE Europe, which faces a constantly deepening cyclonic gyre over far NW Europe into Iceland. Latest EZ-ENS data has a rather tightly clustered MSLP member cloud in the 970-975 hPa range for this vortex, which is rather low/impressive for this time of year. This vortex gets not only framed by the mentioned positive height anomalies over SE Europe but also by another area of positive anomalies over the far E-CNTRL (subtropical) NE Atlantic. This configuration results in an extensive belt of at least two anomalous strong upper jets, one exiting E towards NW Russia with another one approaching from the NE Atlantic.
Most of Europe resides in a cyclonic W/SW-erly mid/upper flow regime, which partially overlaps with an extensive CAPE plume admit constantly improving BL moisture along a zonally aligned synoptic-scale front (which runs from N Spain to S-CNTRL Germany and E towards the Ukraine). This front serves as main focus for DMC activity on a national scale.
DISCUSSION
Spain
Most of Spain resides beneath an upper trough, which temporarily opens up into a wave before merging back into the polar front jet.
CNTRL parts of Spain see weak shear beneath the vortex and slow moving/clustering convection occurs in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and less than 10 m/s DLS. Heavy rain/large amounts of small hail and a few strong downburst gust are forecast.
Kinematics improve steadily towards E/NE Spain, where MUCAPE pushes into the 1000-1500 J/kg range with DLS between 20-25 m/s and up to 15 m/s 0-3 km shear (peak overlap next to the coast). Numerous long-lived multicells and supercells with large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain are forecast. Splitting cells are anticipated as backed wind profiles cause rather straight/elongated hodographs. Destructive intereference of cells occurs, which lowers longevity of any cell but any longer-lived (semi-)discrete supercell could produce even an isolated very large hail event in excess of 5 cm in diameter. This activity weakens beyond sunset.
S-CNTRL / E France, S Germany into Switzerland, Austria and N Italy
Sliding the boundary E towards France, we see a broad belt of 800-1500 J/kg MUCAPE overlapping with 15 m/s DLS and 0-3 km shear in the 10-15 m/s range. Weak ridging aloft keeps CI in check until noon/early afternoon before a passing weak wave and diabatic heating/the orography itself cause scattered CI. Most likely areas for CI reside along the Pyrenees N into SW France but also along the Massif Central E towards Switzerland and far NW Italy.
WAA along/S of the front enlarges hodographs, which show better LL curvature especially towards E-CNTRL France but also over far NW Italy (forced by the orography). CAPE/shear space supports numerous multicells and a few long-tracked supercells. Diffuse background forcing should assist in more discrete CI with a mix of classic to HP supercells as upper winds abate. Expect large to isolated very large hail, heavy rain and strong to severe gusts the main risk but modest 0-3 km CAPE, LCLs around 500-700 m and slightly enhanced LL shear along the front itself also indicate an isolated tornado risk, especially towards E-CNTRL France into far W Switzerland.
Towards NE Switzerland into Austria and far S Germany, CAPE shear space resembles the parameters further W, although CAPE remains a bit less bullish. ICON however increases 0-3 km shear into the 20 m/s range from Switzerland into S Germany, which would enlarge the lower parts of the hodograph, offering lots of strong SR inflow, with ICON pushing into the 30 kt 0-2 km SR inflow range. Lots of shear for sure for a mix of multicells, bowing segments and a few supercells with all kind of hazards possible including large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain but also an isolated tornado event. We added this area into a level 2 for the chance of a few long-trakced cells with all kind of hazards including hail larger 5 cm in diameter.
SE Austria into Hungary
Another favorable area for organized multicells and a few supercells exists in the mentioned area although there could be an issue with increasing CIN as convection moves away from the orography. EZ remain more bullish with the cap, whereas ICON indicates only weak CIN. As convection taps into a plume of very unstable air into far W Hungary, upscale growth into a longer-lived bow echo is a possibility with up to 15 m/s 0-3 km shear forecast. The main hazard in this area of interest will be large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain. An isolated tornado event during the more (semi) discrete phase is possible. This is more a borderline level 2 event and depends on the final magnitude of the cap.
NE Italy
Although CI could be an issue with weak background lift, we expect at least isolated thunderstorms to evolve in the level 2 area. This activity shifts into 1500 J/kg MUCAPE with 15 m/s DLS, which is enough for a few well organized multicells and isolated supercells with large hail and severe gusts next to heavy rain.
Parts of E Slovakia to W/N Ukraine and far S Belarus
Yet another area along the front, which experiences plenty of CAPE for deep updrafts with MUCAPE pushing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range including local higher peaks. DLS increases up to 15 m/s next to the SE ward shifting cold front with similar peaks in the 0-3 km layer, so a mix of multicells/bowing segments and a few supercells is forecast with large hail (isolated very large hail not ruled out), severe downbursts and heavy rain on a local scale. Due to the high coverage of severe with a few extreme (hail/wind) events not ruled out, another level 2 upgrade was performed for N Ukraine into S Belarus. Betimes, a structuing LL depression, widespread CI and an improving outflow connection to the right entrance region of an upper jet streak over NW Russia could support upscale growth into a large cluster of storms, like an MCS and even further structuring into a long-lived MCV event is possible, which shifts into Russia during the overnight hours before starting a gradual weakening trend. A broad area of heavy rain could evolve along the N/NW fringe of the progressive surface low, which crosses the far N Ukraine E and places far SE Belarus in the highest risk for heavy rain on the broader scale.
E-Slovakia was also upgraded as a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE interacts with 15 m/s DLS. A passing wave adds enough background lift for scattered to widespread CI with a mix of multicells and a few supercells. Large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain become the main issue. This activity grows upscale into a SEward shifting cluster betimes.
Poland into the Baltic States
Placed N of the surface front and affected by rather strong subsidence behind an eastward departing mid/upper wave, isolated to scattered CI is still anticipated beyond noon in a more or less uncapped airmass. 300-600 J/kg MUCAPE and strong DLS are enough for a few organized thunderstorms with rotating updrafts, which cause some hail, gusty winds and instances of heavy rain. An isolated tornado event cannot be ruled out especially from NE Poland into NW Belarus and SE Lithuania, where confidence for CI is a bit higher. We covered this area in a broad level 1.
N Algeria
A few thunderstorms erupt along the orogaphy with lots of mid-level CAPE and adequate shear for a few rotating updrafts with large hail and severe downbursts.
De onderstaande tekst is automatisch vertaald en aangepast om het beter leesbaar te maken voor onze lezers. De inhoud kan daarom verschillen van de originele tekst. Er kunnen geen rechten worden ontleend aan onze teksten, zie disclaimer.
- Spanje en Zuidwest-Frankrijk: Level 2 waarschuwing voor grote tot zeer grote hagel, zware windstoten en zware regenval.
- Midden-Zuid Frankrijk tot Noordwest-Italië en Zuid-Duitsland: Level 2 waarschuwingen voor vergelijkbare gevaren met extra mogelijkheid op geïsoleerde tornado's.
- Noord-Oekraïne en Zuid-Belarus: Level 2 waarschuwing voor grote tot zeer grote hagel, zware windstoten en zware regenval. Geïsoleerde tornado's mogelijk.
- Oost-Slowakije tot West-Oekraïne en Oost-Hongarije: Level 2 waarschuwing voor grote hagel, zware windstoten en zware regenval.
- Algemene Dekking: Level 1 gebieden omringen alle Level 2 gebieden, met vergelijkbare risico's maar lagere waarschijnlijkheden.
- Atlasgebergte: Level 1 waarschuwing voor grote hagel en zware neerwaartse windstoten.
- SYNOPSIS: Versterking van een blokkade boven Zuidoost-Europa terwijl een cycloon over Noordwest-Europa en IJsland dieper wordt. Twee sterke straalstromen vormen zich.
- Situatie in Spanje: Midden-Spanje ondervindt zwakke windschering met zware regen en hagel. Naar het oostelijke en noordoostelijke Spanje verbetert de kinematica met risico's op grote hagel en zware windstoten in langdurige onweersbuien en supercells.
- Midden-Zuid / Oost-Frankrijk, Zuid-Duitsland tot Zwitserland, Oostenrijk en Noord-Italië: Breed gebied met kans op multicells en supercells met grote hagel, zware regen en zware windstoten. Isolatie tornado risico, vooral in oost-centrale Frankrijk.
- Zuidoost-Oostenrijk tot Hongarije: Risico op georganiseerde multicells en supercells met grote hagel en zware regen. Geïsoleerde tornado mogelijk.
- Noordoost-Italië: Geïsoleerde onweersbuien mogelijk met grote hagel en zware windstoten.
- Oost-Slowakije tot West- en Noord-Oekraïne en Zuid-Belarus: Level 2 risico op grote hagel, zware windstoten en zware regen. Geïsoleerde tornado's mogelijk. Kans op mesoscale convective systems (MCS) gebeurtenissen.
- Polen tot de Baltische Staten: Enkele georganiseerde onweersbuien verwacht met rotaties die hagel, wind en zware regen veroorzaken. Geïsoleerde tornado mogelijk.
- Noord-Algerije: Enkele onweersbuien langs gebergten met kans op grote hagel en zware neerwaartse windstoten.