Actuele ESTOFEX-verwachting
Estofex is een collectief van meteorologen en meteorologiestudenten, dat iedere dag een verwachting uitgeeft voor convectief weer in Europa. Hoewel de organisatie niet als oogmerk heeft om te waarschuwen, wordt de verwachting wel beschouwd als zeer uitgebreid en waardevol voor menig onweerverwachting. Hieronder kun je de meest recente verwachting zien die door Estofex is uitgeschreven. De verwachting is in het Engels opgesteld.
2
Extended Forecast
Geschreven door: TUSCHY
Geldig vanaf: 16 apr. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 17 apr. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
Geldig vanaf: 16 apr. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 17 apr. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
A level 2 was issued across parts of NW Italy mainly for excessive rain.
A level 1 surrounds the level 2 with a similar risk but with lowered probabilities. In addition, isolated large hail, strong to severe gusts and an isolated tornado are forecast.
A level 1 was issued for parts of Corse mainly for heavy rain and an isolated tornado.
A level 1 was issued for parts of the CNTRL Mediterranean mainly for a few tornadoes and heavy rain.
SYNOPSIS
A rather static pattern evolves over Europe in response to a constantly strengthening blocking ridge over E Europe, which extends all the way to Scandinavia. The long-wave trough over W Europe becomes quasi-stationary and breaks up into numerous lower-amplitude waves, whereas the steering vortex remains placed between Scotland and Iceland.
The wave of most concern exits Spain during the start of this forecast and shifts E thereafter before approaching Italy during the overnight hours. This wave cuts off of the frontal zone and evolves into a cut-off low, as it approaches Italy from the W. This wave keeps the negative tilt and its coupled upper jet configuration helps to evacuate mass with attendant mass response in form of an intensifying LL depression. This vortex shifts N from the Strait of Sicily and intensifies while crossing the Tyrrhenian Sea. It turns quasi-stationary somewhere over N-CNTRL Italy during the overnight hours.
DISCUSSION
NW Italy
The main severe risk evolves in the Aosta Valley/Piedmont region, where persistent upslope flow is forecast during the day. Expect periods of heavy to excessive rain, especially with embedded convection. Compared to the day before, CAPE and BL moisture improve in an environment with deep moist profiles. Advected Layered PWs show a deep plume of moisture to work with and even some connection to the tropics exists, so a dominant collision coalescence process should support high hourly rainfall rates. During the night, the approaching vortex from the S induces an imperessive orographically forced inflow channel from the SE/E into the area of most concern, which keeps the excessive rainfall risk alive. Expect 24 h rainfall amounts within the level 2 area in the 150-350 l/qm range with (flash) flooding likely.
During the afternoon/evening hours, the risk of severe temporarily expands well to the S/SE into the Bologna area, where a few multicells/isolated supercells pose an isolated large hail and severe wind gust threat, which turns more to an heavy rainfall risk towards the Milan/Turin area. An isolated tornado event is possible.
We expanded the level 1 also to the W coast of Italy for clustering thunderstorm activity during the afternoon with heavy rain.
CNTRL Mediterranean
A broad level 1 was issued to highlight a mixed severe risk. Corse resides next to the approaching and later-on also stalling vortex with slow moving convection the primary hazard. Heavy rain and an isolated tornado event become the main issue.
Otherwise, favorable high LLCAPE/weak shear setup exists beneath the upper trough and affects most of the W-CNTRL Mediterranean. A few waterspouts and slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rain and graupel/gusts are forecast.
Parts of CNTRL/N Germany
Most of the airmass N of the Alps remains capped. However, CI is possible along a wavy frontal boundary, which bisects Germany from N to S and interacts with a structuring and slowly N ward moving lee vortex (shifting towards E-CNTRL Germany). Main issue right now seems to be modest CAPE with even lower ECAPE values due to rather dry low/mid-levels. Nevertheless, we issued a thunderstorm area, where latest EPS/deterministic has the highest probabilities for CI, which is the area of the front interacting with the diabatic vortex and with the orography. In case of development, strong to isolated severe gusts become the main hazard with a well mixed BL. Initiating storms may cause a few hail reports, too.
Thunderstorms ride the tilted frontal boundary and turn more elevated further W into NW Germany. Repeated thunderstorm development could bring some localized heavy rain. The risk extends into the overnight hours with a gradual weakening trend. A level 1 upgrade could become necessary in case of higher confidence in more widespread CI.
A level 1 surrounds the level 2 with a similar risk but with lowered probabilities. In addition, isolated large hail, strong to severe gusts and an isolated tornado are forecast.
A level 1 was issued for parts of Corse mainly for heavy rain and an isolated tornado.
A level 1 was issued for parts of the CNTRL Mediterranean mainly for a few tornadoes and heavy rain.
SYNOPSIS
A rather static pattern evolves over Europe in response to a constantly strengthening blocking ridge over E Europe, which extends all the way to Scandinavia. The long-wave trough over W Europe becomes quasi-stationary and breaks up into numerous lower-amplitude waves, whereas the steering vortex remains placed between Scotland and Iceland.
The wave of most concern exits Spain during the start of this forecast and shifts E thereafter before approaching Italy during the overnight hours. This wave cuts off of the frontal zone and evolves into a cut-off low, as it approaches Italy from the W. This wave keeps the negative tilt and its coupled upper jet configuration helps to evacuate mass with attendant mass response in form of an intensifying LL depression. This vortex shifts N from the Strait of Sicily and intensifies while crossing the Tyrrhenian Sea. It turns quasi-stationary somewhere over N-CNTRL Italy during the overnight hours.
DISCUSSION
NW Italy
The main severe risk evolves in the Aosta Valley/Piedmont region, where persistent upslope flow is forecast during the day. Expect periods of heavy to excessive rain, especially with embedded convection. Compared to the day before, CAPE and BL moisture improve in an environment with deep moist profiles. Advected Layered PWs show a deep plume of moisture to work with and even some connection to the tropics exists, so a dominant collision coalescence process should support high hourly rainfall rates. During the night, the approaching vortex from the S induces an imperessive orographically forced inflow channel from the SE/E into the area of most concern, which keeps the excessive rainfall risk alive. Expect 24 h rainfall amounts within the level 2 area in the 150-350 l/qm range with (flash) flooding likely.
During the afternoon/evening hours, the risk of severe temporarily expands well to the S/SE into the Bologna area, where a few multicells/isolated supercells pose an isolated large hail and severe wind gust threat, which turns more to an heavy rainfall risk towards the Milan/Turin area. An isolated tornado event is possible.
We expanded the level 1 also to the W coast of Italy for clustering thunderstorm activity during the afternoon with heavy rain.
CNTRL Mediterranean
A broad level 1 was issued to highlight a mixed severe risk. Corse resides next to the approaching and later-on also stalling vortex with slow moving convection the primary hazard. Heavy rain and an isolated tornado event become the main issue.
Otherwise, favorable high LLCAPE/weak shear setup exists beneath the upper trough and affects most of the W-CNTRL Mediterranean. A few waterspouts and slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rain and graupel/gusts are forecast.
Parts of CNTRL/N Germany
Most of the airmass N of the Alps remains capped. However, CI is possible along a wavy frontal boundary, which bisects Germany from N to S and interacts with a structuring and slowly N ward moving lee vortex (shifting towards E-CNTRL Germany). Main issue right now seems to be modest CAPE with even lower ECAPE values due to rather dry low/mid-levels. Nevertheless, we issued a thunderstorm area, where latest EPS/deterministic has the highest probabilities for CI, which is the area of the front interacting with the diabatic vortex and with the orography. In case of development, strong to isolated severe gusts become the main hazard with a well mixed BL. Initiating storms may cause a few hail reports, too.
Thunderstorms ride the tilted frontal boundary and turn more elevated further W into NW Germany. Repeated thunderstorm development could bring some localized heavy rain. The risk extends into the overnight hours with a gradual weakening trend. A level 1 upgrade could become necessary in case of higher confidence in more widespread CI.
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- Een level 2 waarschuwing is afgegeven voor delen van NW Italië, voornamelijk voor overmatige regen.
- Een level 1 omringt level 2 met een vergelijkbaar risico, maar met lagere waarschijnlijkheid. Ook kunnen geïsoleerde grote hagel, sterke windstoten en een geïsoleerde tornado voorkomen.
- Een level 1 is afgegeven voor delen van Corsica, voornamelijk voor zware regen en een geïsoleerde tornado.
- Een level 1 is afgegeven voor delen van de CNTRL Middellandse Zee, voornamelijk voor enkele tornado's en zware regen.
- Een statisch patroon ontwikkelt zich over Europa door een sterkere blokkaderug over Oost-Europa die zich uitstrekt tot Scandinavië. De langgolvige trog over West-Europa wordt quasi-stationair en breekt op in lagere amplitude golven.
- De belangrijkste golf vertrekt vanuit Spanje aan het begin van de prognose en beweegt daarna richting Italië, waar het evolueert tot een afgescheiden laag.
- Het grootste risico bevindt zich in Aosta Valley/Piëmont door aanhoudende stijgingsregen, resulterend in zware regen en potentiële overstromingen.
- Tijdens de middag en avond kan het risico uitbreiden naar Bologna met kans op grote hagel en zware windstoten, en meer kans op zware regen bij Milaan/Turijn. Een geïsoleerde tornado is mogelijk.
- Uitbreiding van level 1 voor clustering van onweersbuien en zware regen langs de westkust van Italië.
- Een breed level 1 markeert een gemengd risico, met zware regen en geïsoleerde tornado op Corsica.
- Voor het centrale deel van de Middellandse Zee wordt vertraagde convectie voorspeld met kans op zware regen en waterhozen.
- Voornamelijk zwak risico door beperkte CAPE. Mogelijke ontwikkeling langs een golvende frontlinie, met sterke windstoten en geïsoleerde hagel.
- Onweersbuien kunnen lokalisaties van zware regen brengen. Niveau 1 kan nodig zijn bij grotere zekerheid over convectieve initiatie.