Actuele ESTOFEX-verwachting
Estofex is een collectief van meteorologen en meteorologiestudenten, dat iedere dag een verwachting uitgeeft voor convectief weer in Europa. Hoewel de organisatie niet als oogmerk heeft om te waarschuwen, wordt de verwachting wel beschouwd als zeer uitgebreid en waardevol voor menig onweerverwachting. Hieronder kun je de meest recente verwachting zien die door Estofex is uitgeschreven. De verwachting is in het Engels opgesteld.
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2
Extended Forecast
Geschreven door: TUSCHY
Geldig vanaf: 10 jul. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 11 jul. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
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Geldig vanaf: 10 jul. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 11 jul. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
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A level 2 was issued from the Ukraine into Belarus for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and heavy rain. A strong tornado event is possible.
A broad level 1 surrounds the level 2 for similar hazards but with lowered probabilities.
SYNOPSIS
An extensive cut-off still resides over E-CNTRL into E Europe and gets framed by positive height anomalies. Hence not much adjustment to the European wave pattern is forecast.
This extended outlook experiences substantial NWP differences (e.g. placement of the synoptic-scale fronts over E Europe), which results in a rather uncertain outlook. Hence only broad level areas were added for now. However current guidance points to an active severe weather day for most of Belarus into the Baltic States.
DISCUSSION
Ukraine towards the Baltic States
An extensive LL vortex over the Ukraine shifts N/NW into Belarus. This vortex pushes a warm front towards the Baltic States and more into N Russia, whereas a cold front shifts E over the Ukraine.
Prefrontal airmass destabilization is forecast with rich BL moisture and modest mid-level lapse rates atop. A belt of 1000 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE over the CNTRL Ukraine extends into Belarus, where peak values increase in excess of 2000 J/kg.
A belt of strong mid/upper-level flow affects the unstable airmass with DLS in excess of 20 m/s and similar values in the lowest 3 km. Scattered thunderstorms evolve beyond noon and grow into a mix of organized multicells and a few supercells, posing a threat of large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain.
Especially from N-CNTRL Ukraine into Belarus, the CAPE shear space supports severe bow echoes with swaths of damaging gusts, large hail and heavy rain. More discrete storms also pose a very large hail threat with numerous events forecast (hail diameter in excess of 5 cm). A strong tornado event is possible due to lowered LCL heights and curved hodographs. This activity spreads rapidly N/NW towards the Baltic States during the night, where elevated MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg and strong shear still support organized convection with hail and heavy rain. There severe risk may increase in case the convection approaches earlier than currently forecast.
Further NE into Russia, diffuse forcing beneath a strengthening upper ridge should keep CI more on the isolated scale - mainly near the gradually northward lifting warm front. Any storm, which rides along the southern fringe of the warm front will move through 2000 to 4000 J/kg MUCAPE in 10-15 m/s DLS. Organized multicells and an isolated supercell bring all kind of hazards, including large hail and a tornado or two.
A broad level 1 surrounds the level 2 for similar hazards but with lowered probabilities.
SYNOPSIS
An extensive cut-off still resides over E-CNTRL into E Europe and gets framed by positive height anomalies. Hence not much adjustment to the European wave pattern is forecast.
This extended outlook experiences substantial NWP differences (e.g. placement of the synoptic-scale fronts over E Europe), which results in a rather uncertain outlook. Hence only broad level areas were added for now. However current guidance points to an active severe weather day for most of Belarus into the Baltic States.
DISCUSSION
Ukraine towards the Baltic States
An extensive LL vortex over the Ukraine shifts N/NW into Belarus. This vortex pushes a warm front towards the Baltic States and more into N Russia, whereas a cold front shifts E over the Ukraine.
Prefrontal airmass destabilization is forecast with rich BL moisture and modest mid-level lapse rates atop. A belt of 1000 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE over the CNTRL Ukraine extends into Belarus, where peak values increase in excess of 2000 J/kg.
A belt of strong mid/upper-level flow affects the unstable airmass with DLS in excess of 20 m/s and similar values in the lowest 3 km. Scattered thunderstorms evolve beyond noon and grow into a mix of organized multicells and a few supercells, posing a threat of large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain.
Especially from N-CNTRL Ukraine into Belarus, the CAPE shear space supports severe bow echoes with swaths of damaging gusts, large hail and heavy rain. More discrete storms also pose a very large hail threat with numerous events forecast (hail diameter in excess of 5 cm). A strong tornado event is possible due to lowered LCL heights and curved hodographs. This activity spreads rapidly N/NW towards the Baltic States during the night, where elevated MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg and strong shear still support organized convection with hail and heavy rain. There severe risk may increase in case the convection approaches earlier than currently forecast.
Further NE into Russia, diffuse forcing beneath a strengthening upper ridge should keep CI more on the isolated scale - mainly near the gradually northward lifting warm front. Any storm, which rides along the southern fringe of the warm front will move through 2000 to 4000 J/kg MUCAPE in 10-15 m/s DLS. Organized multicells and an isolated supercell bring all kind of hazards, including large hail and a tornado or two.
De onderstaande tekst is automatisch vertaald en aangepast om het beter leesbaar te maken voor onze lezers. De inhoud kan daarom verschillen van de originele tekst. Er kunnen geen rechten worden ontleend aan onze teksten, zie disclaimer.
- Level 2-waarschuwing van Oekraïne naar Wit-Rusland voor grote tot zeer grote hagel, beschadigende windstoten en zware regen; sterke tornado mogelijk.
- Brede level 1-gebied daaromheen voor soortgelijke gevaren, maar met lagere waarschijnlijkheden.
Synopsis
- Uitgebreid afgesnoerd lagedrukgebied over Centraal-Oost naar Oost-Europa met positieve hoogte-afwijkingen; weinig patroonverandering voorspeld.
- Grote onzekerheid door verschillen in weersvoorspellingen, vooral qua ligging van synoptische fronten over Oost-Europa.
- Mogelijk actieve zware weerdag voor grootste deel van Wit-Rusland richting de Baltische Staten.
Discussie
Oekraïne richting de Baltische Staten
- Uitgebreid laagdrukgebied over Oekraïne beweegt N/NW naar Wit-Rusland, duwt warmfront richting de Baltische Staten en Noord-Rusland; koufront beweegt Oost over Oekraïne.
- Voorfrontaire destabilisatie verwacht met rijke grondlagenvochtigheid en matige mid-level lapse rates.
- CAPE-waarden van 1000 tot 1500 J/kg over Centraal-Oekraïne uitbreiding naar Wit-Rusland, met pieken boven 2000 J/kg.
- Sterke stroming op midden/boven-niveau beïnvloedt onstabiele luchtmassa met DLS boven 20 m/s en vergelijkbare waarden in de laagste 3 km.
- Verspreide onweersbuien vanaf de middag die zich ontwikkelen tot georganiseerde multicellen en enkele supercellen, met risico op grote hagel, zware windstoten en zware regen.
- Met name van Noord-Centraal Oekraïne naar Wit-Rusland, ondersteuning voor ernstige bow echoes met hagel, windstoten en regen.
- Meer discrete stormen kunnen zeer grote hagel veroorzaken (> 5 cm); mogelijkheid van sterke tornado door lage LCL-hoogten en gebogen hodografen.
- Activiteit verplaatst zich snel N/NW naar de Baltische Staten tijdens de nacht, waar verhoogde MUCAPE (> 1000 J/kg) en sterke schering nog steeds ondersteunen voor georganiseerde convectie met hagel en zware regen.
- Risico's kunnen toenemen als convectie eerder aankomt dan momenteel voorspeld.
Verder NE richting Rusland
- Diffuus-forcing onder versterkende bovenste rug houdt CI meer geïsoleerd – vooral nabij noordwaarts bewegend warm front.
- Stormen langs de zuidelijke rand van het warmfront doorlopen 2000 tot 4000 J/kg MUCAPE in 10-15 m/s DLS.
- Georganiseerde multicellen en een geïsoleerde supercel brengen alle soorten gevaren, waaronder grote hagel en een of twee tornado's.
2
Storm Forecast
Geschreven door: Pucik
Geldig vanaf: 11 jul. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 12 jul. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
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Geldig vanaf: 11 jul. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 12 jul. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
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A level 2 was issued across parts of N Spain mainly for large to very large hail, heavy rainfall and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 surrounds the level 2 for the same threats but with smaller probability.
A level 1 was issued for NE Italy mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for southern Carpathians mainly for heavy rainfall.
A level 2 was issued across NE Belarus, NW Russia, E Latvia and Estonia mainly for damaging wind gusts and large to very large hail.
A level 1 was issued across E Ukraine and SW Russia mainly for large hail and heavy rainfall.
DISCUSSION
Spain
A low at mid to upper troposphere will slowly move eastwards during the day across the region, providing synoptic-scale lift at its forward flank. Closer to the surface, a dryline will establish between the lowlands and the highlands of the northern Spain with an upslope flow simulated during the late afternoon hours. Combination of this boundary and the local orography will provide the lifting mechanism for storms. The highest coverage is expected in late evening to overnight hours.
Forecast profiles reveal MLCAPE values ranging from 1000 to 3000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear between 10 and 20 m/s. The best CAPE shear overlap is forecast in Zaragoza area, whereas the highest likelihood of storms is forecast near Bilbao. A variety of severe weather threats is forecast with storms. Earlier on, large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will dominate with heavy rainfall taking over later on as the storms grow upscale and the boundary layer becomes more stable. Lvl 2 is introduced in the zone where the highest coverage of severe weather is expected. Storms will spread east during the night and may eventually reach the coastline of Catalonia and exit over the sea.
NE Belarus to Latvia and Estonia
A northwest-southeast oriented cold frontal boundary will become a focus for widespread thunderstorm activity during the day. A tongue of hot airmass with steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates will be advected ahead of the cold front from the continental Russia, overlapping with 12 to 14 g/kg of specific humidity close to the ground. This will yield high MLCAPE values reaching 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Much of the CAPE will be confined to the mid to upper troposphere. With strong warm air advection regime ahead of the front and combined with modest mid-tropospheric flow aloft, curved hodographs characterized by around 15 m/s 0-3 km shear and 150 to 300 m2/s2 SRH in 0-3 km layer are simulated.
First storms will be likely ongoing already in the morning hours, with rapid increase in coverage around 12 UTC. The first initiating cells may be supercells, capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. With mean flow parallel to the front and shear confined to the bottom 3 km, a fast upscale growth is anticipated with one or two bow echoes developing and moving across the area. Expect widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps isolated gusts exceeding 30 m/s. Locally, damage can be exacerbated by the collocation of large hail and destructive wind gusts. This is a high-end Lvl 2 situation! Storms will decay towards late evening over northern Estonia and move over the Baltic Sea towards Sweden in elevated form with greatly reduced wind gust risk.
E Ukraine to SW Russia
An increase in the coverage of storms is forecast in the late evening to overnight hours with some disagreement in models exactly where will be the storms most numerous. Storms will be elevated with their inflow layer starting around 1 km above the surface with available MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 15 m/s. Large to perhaps very large hail and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats. A high end Lvl 1 is issued for the area.
NE Italy
A subtle short-wave is forecast to cross the area in the afternoon hours, with cold mid-tropospheric temperature increasing the lapse rates below and yielding MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. With northerly flow aloft and southerly wind close to the ground, 0-6 km bulk shear values will increase to 15 to 20 m/s by the afternoon hours. Some supercells are likely to form, with one or two swaths of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts.
Southern Carpathians
Weak mean wind combined with low LCLs and skinny CAPE profiles will yield an enhanced risk of locally very heavy rainfall in the mountainous areas of southern Carpathians in Romania.
A level 1 surrounds the level 2 for the same threats but with smaller probability.
A level 1 was issued for NE Italy mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for southern Carpathians mainly for heavy rainfall.
A level 2 was issued across NE Belarus, NW Russia, E Latvia and Estonia mainly for damaging wind gusts and large to very large hail.
A level 1 was issued across E Ukraine and SW Russia mainly for large hail and heavy rainfall.
DISCUSSION
Spain
A low at mid to upper troposphere will slowly move eastwards during the day across the region, providing synoptic-scale lift at its forward flank. Closer to the surface, a dryline will establish between the lowlands and the highlands of the northern Spain with an upslope flow simulated during the late afternoon hours. Combination of this boundary and the local orography will provide the lifting mechanism for storms. The highest coverage is expected in late evening to overnight hours.
Forecast profiles reveal MLCAPE values ranging from 1000 to 3000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear between 10 and 20 m/s. The best CAPE shear overlap is forecast in Zaragoza area, whereas the highest likelihood of storms is forecast near Bilbao. A variety of severe weather threats is forecast with storms. Earlier on, large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will dominate with heavy rainfall taking over later on as the storms grow upscale and the boundary layer becomes more stable. Lvl 2 is introduced in the zone where the highest coverage of severe weather is expected. Storms will spread east during the night and may eventually reach the coastline of Catalonia and exit over the sea.
NE Belarus to Latvia and Estonia
A northwest-southeast oriented cold frontal boundary will become a focus for widespread thunderstorm activity during the day. A tongue of hot airmass with steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates will be advected ahead of the cold front from the continental Russia, overlapping with 12 to 14 g/kg of specific humidity close to the ground. This will yield high MLCAPE values reaching 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Much of the CAPE will be confined to the mid to upper troposphere. With strong warm air advection regime ahead of the front and combined with modest mid-tropospheric flow aloft, curved hodographs characterized by around 15 m/s 0-3 km shear and 150 to 300 m2/s2 SRH in 0-3 km layer are simulated.
First storms will be likely ongoing already in the morning hours, with rapid increase in coverage around 12 UTC. The first initiating cells may be supercells, capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. With mean flow parallel to the front and shear confined to the bottom 3 km, a fast upscale growth is anticipated with one or two bow echoes developing and moving across the area. Expect widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps isolated gusts exceeding 30 m/s. Locally, damage can be exacerbated by the collocation of large hail and destructive wind gusts. This is a high-end Lvl 2 situation! Storms will decay towards late evening over northern Estonia and move over the Baltic Sea towards Sweden in elevated form with greatly reduced wind gust risk.
E Ukraine to SW Russia
An increase in the coverage of storms is forecast in the late evening to overnight hours with some disagreement in models exactly where will be the storms most numerous. Storms will be elevated with their inflow layer starting around 1 km above the surface with available MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 15 m/s. Large to perhaps very large hail and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats. A high end Lvl 1 is issued for the area.
NE Italy
A subtle short-wave is forecast to cross the area in the afternoon hours, with cold mid-tropospheric temperature increasing the lapse rates below and yielding MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. With northerly flow aloft and southerly wind close to the ground, 0-6 km bulk shear values will increase to 15 to 20 m/s by the afternoon hours. Some supercells are likely to form, with one or two swaths of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts.
Southern Carpathians
Weak mean wind combined with low LCLs and skinny CAPE profiles will yield an enhanced risk of locally very heavy rainfall in the mountainous areas of southern Carpathians in Romania.
De onderstaande tekst is automatisch vertaald en aangepast om het beter leesbaar te maken voor onze lezers. De inhoud kan daarom verschillen van de originele tekst. Er kunnen geen rechten worden ontleend aan onze teksten, zie disclaimer.
- Level 2 waarschuwing voor Noord-Spanje voor grote tot zeer grote hagel, zware regenval en zware windstoten.
- Level 1 waarschuwing rondom level 2 gebied in Spanje voor dezelfde dreigingen, maar met kleinere kans.
- Level 1 waarschuwing voor Noordoost-Italië voor grote hagel en zware windstoten.
- Level 1 waarschuwing voor Zuidelijke Karpaten voor zware regenval.
- Level 2 waarschuwing voor Noordoost-Wit-Rusland, Noordwest-Rusland, Oost-Letland en Estland voor schadelijke windstoten en grote tot zeer grote hagel.
- Level 1 waarschuwing voor Oost-Oekraïne en Zuidwest-Rusland voor grote hagel en zware regenval.
Discussie
Spanje
- Langzaam oostwaarts bewegend troposferisch laag met synoptische opwaartse stroming.
- Drooglijn tussen laaglanden en hooglanden van Noord-Spanje met opschuifstroom in de namiddag.
- MLCAPE waardes van 1000 tot 3000 J/kg en 0-6 km bulk shear tussen 10 en 20 m/s.
- Beste CAPE shear overlap in Zaragoza, grootste kans op stormen nabij Bilbao.
- Verwachting van zware weersdreigingen, later vooral zware regenval.
- Stormen verspreiden zich naar het oosten en kunnen de kust van Catalonië bereiken.
Noordoost-Wit-Rusland naar Letland en Estland
- Koudfront als focus voor wijdverspreide onweersactiviteit.
- Hoge MLCAPE waardes tussen 2000 en 3000 J/kg door warme en vochtige lucht.
- Stormen 's ochtends, toename in dekking rond 12 UTC.
- Supercellen met grote tot zeer grote hagel en zware windstoten mogelijk.
- Verwachte snelle uptick in dekking met één of twee bow echoes.
- Wijdverspreide zware windstoten, lokaal grotere schade door hagel en wind.
Oost-Oekraïne naar Zuidwest-Rusland
- Toename in dekking van stormen verwacht in de late avond tot nachtelijke uren.
- Echte locatie van stormen onzeker, maar MUCAPE rond 1000 J/kg beschikbaar.
- Grote tot mogelijk zeer grote hagel en zware regenval zijn de primaire dreigingen.
Noordoost-Italië
- Verwachting van subtiele korte golf in de middag en koude mid-troposferische temperaturen.
- MLCAPE waardes rond 1000 J/kg, toenemende bulk shear tot 15-20 m/s.
- Kans op supercellen met grote hagel en geïsoleerde zware windstoten.
Zuidelijke Karpaten
- Zwakke gemiddelde wind, lage LCL's en smalle CAPE-profielen.
- Verhoogd risico op lokaal zeer zware regenval in bergachtige gebieden van de Zuidelijke Karpaten in Roemenië.