Actuele ESTOFEX-verwachting

Estofex is een collectief van meteorologen en meteorologiestudenten, dat iedere dag een verwachting uitgeeft voor convectief weer in Europa. Hoewel de organisatie niet als oogmerk heeft om te waarschuwen, wordt de verwachting wel beschouwd als zeer uitgebreid en waardevol voor menig onweerverwachting. Hieronder kun je de meest recente verwachting zien die door Estofex is uitgeschreven. De verwachting is in het Engels opgesteld.

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Actuele verwachting

Geschreven door: DAFIS
Geldig van 19/06/2018 06 uur UTC tot 20/06/2018 06 uur UTC
Nederlandse tijd: +1 uur tijdens wintertijd & +2 uur tijdens zomertijd
Bron: www.estofex.org
Licentie: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0

Veranderingen/changes: no changes made except for transforming dates into readable format & general markup / geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst

A level 1 was issued for Finland mainly for severe convective wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Russia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the Balkans, S Italy and Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and severe convective wind gusts. Large hail is also possible in C-N Balkans. Waterspouts are possible near the coasts.

DISCUSSION

A strong ridge is building up in Central Europe which is surrounded by several troughs, mostly to the north. The boundary between the polar air masses and the north edge of the ridge is creating a jet streak from the North Sea to the Baltic States and later over Russia. I South Europe, one cut-off low can be found west of the Iberian Peninsula and low geopotentials prevail in SE Europe and the Middle East, along with warm and moist low-level air masses. At the surface, an elongated cold front extending from C Europe towards Russia is moving gradually east, replacing the unstable air masses with dry air.

... Finland ....

An intense short-wave trough with high values of positive vorticity advection will cross Scandinavia. Pre-existing low-level moist air masses and synoptic lift will create some thunderstorms, able to produce severe convective wind gusts before the main dry intrusion in the afternoon. NWP models simulate weak to modest CAPE up to 500 J/Kg MLCAPE (IFS) and low EL, thus large hail threat is limited, as well as tornadic events, even though a landspout cannot be ruled out.

.... Russia ....

As the cold front will propagate to the east, synoptic lift along with diurnal heating will create numerous storms. The area with the most favorable conditions for large hail is marked with a level 1 probability as NWP models forecast substantial NCAPE, but hailstones should not become larger than 2cm. High delta-thetae values suggest that locally severe convective wind gusts are plausible.

.... Balkans, Italy, Turkey ....

The weak middle-level flow and the abundant moisture in the low-levels create favorable conditions for flash floods. Storms will mostly remain stationary and wet microburst are well possible. Convective activity should remain offshore after sunset.