Actuele ESTOFEX-verwachting

Estofex is een collectief van meteorologen en meteorologiestudenten, dat iedere dag een verwachting uitgeeft voor convectief weer in Europa. Hoewel de organisatie niet als oogmerk heeft om te waarschuwen, wordt de verwachting wel beschouwd als zeer uitgebreid en waardevol voor menig onweerverwachting. Hieronder kun je de meest recente verwachting zien die door Estofex is uitgeschreven. De verwachting is in het Engels opgesteld.

» NIEUW? Hier kun je lezen hoe je de Estofex-kaart kunt interpreteren

Actuele verwachting

Geschreven door: Gatzen
Geldig van 17/10/2019 06 uur UTC tot 18/10/2019 06 uur UTC
Nederlandse tijd: +1 uur tijdens wintertijd & +2 uur tijdens zomertijd
Bron: www.estofex.org
Licentie: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0

Veranderingen/changes: no changes made except for transforming dates into readable format & general markup / geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst

SYNOPSIS

A trough is placed across north-west Europe, yielding a south-westerly jet hat extends from the Bay of Biscay to Germany and farther into Russia that is affected by an embedded short-wave trough. Rather low geopotential is associated with weak mid-level winds across south-eastern Europe.

DISCUSSION

Greece, Turkey, and surroundings

A cool and well-mixed air mass overlaps with quite rich low-level moisture. MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg is present over the warm waters of the Mediterranean, and some CAPE can also build in response to diurnal heating over the land. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast. Weak vertical wind shear will not support organized storms. Main threat is from waterspouts that can develop close to the shores in the morning. Additionally, slow moving storms pose a threat of locally excessive precipitation.

Portugal

A moist air mass is advected into Portugal. Some thunderstorms are forecast in the morning. Deep layer shear of 15 m/s can support some multicells, and with 0-3 km vertical shear, bowing segments are not ruled out. Severe threat is limited, though, although tornadoes are not ruled out. During the period, large-scale sinking will result in an increasing inversion and storms are not expected to go on.

British Isles

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast in the noon and afternoon. Vertical shear and MLCAPE are weak, and severe storms are not forecast. Severe wind gusts will be mostly the result of the strong background wind field. Over the Bay of Biscay, a PV intrusion will be associated with stretching at low levels, leading to steep lapse rates. Some stronger storms are forecast late in the period, with a slightly enhanced severe wind gust threat.