Actuele ESTOFEX-verwachting
Estofex is een collectief van meteorologen en meteorologiestudenten, dat iedere dag een verwachting uitgeeft voor convectief weer in Europa. Hoewel de organisatie niet als oogmerk heeft om te waarschuwen, wordt de verwachting wel beschouwd als zeer uitgebreid en waardevol voor menig onweerverwachting. Hieronder kun je de meest recente verwachting zien die door Estofex is uitgeschreven. De verwachting is in het Engels opgesteld.
1
Storm Forecast
Geschreven door: TUSCHY
Geldig vanaf: 5 nov. 07:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 6 nov. 07:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
Geldig vanaf: 5 nov. 07:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 6 nov. 07:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
A level 1 was issued for parts of Greece and surrounding areas mainly for heavy to locally excessive rain. A coastal/offshore waterspout risk exists on an isolated scale.
A level 1 was issued for parts of Spain/Portugal for a tornado, hail, severe wind gust and heavy rain risk. A strong tornado event cannot be ruled out.
SYNOPSIS
Extensive blocking persists over most of Europe. Embedded in positive height anomalies is a broad/weak upper trough over SE Europe with two dipoles - one over Romania and another one atop the Ionian Sea/S of Greece.
A negative tilted trough crosses SW Europe during the forecast and spreads towards the W Mediterranean during the overnight hours.
DISCUSSION
Parts of Greece and offshore areas
During the start of the forecast period the upper low will be analyzed SW of Greece, which then drifts SE during the following hours. IFS-ENS (of MSLP) has numerous crowded ensemble members S of Greece, which tend to merge into one dominant vortex towards the night/over Crete.
A moist/unstable airmass advects towards S/E Greece with weak BL flow, which turns dominant northeasterly during the day along the backside of the departing vortex. This BL flow regime pushes storm motions within local hodographs to near zero and quasi-stationary/back-building convection poses an excessive rain threat on a local scale, also with isolated waterspout events along the coasts. QPFs offer local peaks in excess of 200 l/qm within a few hours and flash flooding is possible on a local scale. A significant event is not ruled out, if such an event occurs over a town.
...Portugal and Spain...
A complex forecast evolves during the passage of the upper trough and attendant cold front. A strong prefrontal warm jet advects a very moist/subtropical airmass (e.g. atop the Gulf of Cadiz with more than 2 K positive SST anomalies) towards Portugal/S Spain, which turns unstable during the day with occasional diurnal heating. MUCAPE resides in the 400-800 J/kg range well onshore with more than 1000 J/kg over S Portugal/SW-Spain.
Impressive shear accompanies the upper trough with DLS in the 30 m/s, 0-3 km shear in the 20-30 m/s range and LL shear up to 15 m/s on a regional scale.
Organized convection is certainly possible with a straight hodograph/CAPE overlap (lowered SRH but robust LLCAPE) and further improving overlap of thermodynamics/kinematics as diurnal heating sets in (also improving SRH/CAPE overlap). A lowered angle of shear vectors/frontal motion vector could suppress discrete activity a bit with favored clustering (also enhanced by splitting storms) but there certainly exists a risk of at least a few semi-discrete cells ahead of the cold front and/or embedded within line segments.
We expect a rapid increase of a tornado/heavy rain and severe gust risk from 06Z onwards over Portugal, as convection spreads E/NE. The main focus for a tornado threat arises with any more discrete cell or near line breaks. The risk spreads E especially towards SW Spain, where best SBCAPE exists during the day. This causes an ongoing tornado/wind/heavy rain and hail risk.
Further N (towards CNTRL Spain), a few fast moving rotating thunderstorms are also possible with a tornado/severe wind gust and isolated hail threat.
Unclear amount of diabatic heating, dominant storm mode and onshore decay of CAPE preclude a focused level 2 for now. However any more discrete storm could produce a strong tornado event from S/CNTRL Portugal to SW/CNTRL Spain.
During the night, the severe risk also increases over NE Spain and a line with strong to severe thunderstorm shifts E. A few embedded supercells could produce isolated hail/strong gusts and a tornado or two mainly along the coastal areas. Heavy rain becomes another issue, although moving convection should keep the final rainfall amounts within the level 1 threshold.
Please keep in mind that a non-thundery heavy rain risk over N-Portugal and a strong/severe gradient wind risk over mountainous areas and over NW Spain exist but this won't be covered by Estofex.
A level 1 was issued for parts of Spain/Portugal for a tornado, hail, severe wind gust and heavy rain risk. A strong tornado event cannot be ruled out.
SYNOPSIS
Extensive blocking persists over most of Europe. Embedded in positive height anomalies is a broad/weak upper trough over SE Europe with two dipoles - one over Romania and another one atop the Ionian Sea/S of Greece.
A negative tilted trough crosses SW Europe during the forecast and spreads towards the W Mediterranean during the overnight hours.
DISCUSSION
Parts of Greece and offshore areas
During the start of the forecast period the upper low will be analyzed SW of Greece, which then drifts SE during the following hours. IFS-ENS (of MSLP) has numerous crowded ensemble members S of Greece, which tend to merge into one dominant vortex towards the night/over Crete.
A moist/unstable airmass advects towards S/E Greece with weak BL flow, which turns dominant northeasterly during the day along the backside of the departing vortex. This BL flow regime pushes storm motions within local hodographs to near zero and quasi-stationary/back-building convection poses an excessive rain threat on a local scale, also with isolated waterspout events along the coasts. QPFs offer local peaks in excess of 200 l/qm within a few hours and flash flooding is possible on a local scale. A significant event is not ruled out, if such an event occurs over a town.
...Portugal and Spain...
A complex forecast evolves during the passage of the upper trough and attendant cold front. A strong prefrontal warm jet advects a very moist/subtropical airmass (e.g. atop the Gulf of Cadiz with more than 2 K positive SST anomalies) towards Portugal/S Spain, which turns unstable during the day with occasional diurnal heating. MUCAPE resides in the 400-800 J/kg range well onshore with more than 1000 J/kg over S Portugal/SW-Spain.
Impressive shear accompanies the upper trough with DLS in the 30 m/s, 0-3 km shear in the 20-30 m/s range and LL shear up to 15 m/s on a regional scale.
Organized convection is certainly possible with a straight hodograph/CAPE overlap (lowered SRH but robust LLCAPE) and further improving overlap of thermodynamics/kinematics as diurnal heating sets in (also improving SRH/CAPE overlap). A lowered angle of shear vectors/frontal motion vector could suppress discrete activity a bit with favored clustering (also enhanced by splitting storms) but there certainly exists a risk of at least a few semi-discrete cells ahead of the cold front and/or embedded within line segments.
We expect a rapid increase of a tornado/heavy rain and severe gust risk from 06Z onwards over Portugal, as convection spreads E/NE. The main focus for a tornado threat arises with any more discrete cell or near line breaks. The risk spreads E especially towards SW Spain, where best SBCAPE exists during the day. This causes an ongoing tornado/wind/heavy rain and hail risk.
Further N (towards CNTRL Spain), a few fast moving rotating thunderstorms are also possible with a tornado/severe wind gust and isolated hail threat.
Unclear amount of diabatic heating, dominant storm mode and onshore decay of CAPE preclude a focused level 2 for now. However any more discrete storm could produce a strong tornado event from S/CNTRL Portugal to SW/CNTRL Spain.
During the night, the severe risk also increases over NE Spain and a line with strong to severe thunderstorm shifts E. A few embedded supercells could produce isolated hail/strong gusts and a tornado or two mainly along the coastal areas. Heavy rain becomes another issue, although moving convection should keep the final rainfall amounts within the level 1 threshold.
Please keep in mind that a non-thundery heavy rain risk over N-Portugal and a strong/severe gradient wind risk over mountainous areas and over NW Spain exist but this won't be covered by Estofex.
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- Level 1 Waarschuwing:
- Griekenland en omliggende gebieden: Vooral zware tot lokaal overmatige regen en kans op geïsoleerde waterspouts langs de kust.
- Spanje en Portugal: Tornado, hagel, sterke windstoten en zware regenval. Kans op sterke tornado.
- Algemene Weerpatronen:
- Veel blokkades in Europa.
- Zwakke bovenlucht trog over Zuidoost-Europa met centers boven Roemenië en de Ionische Zee.
- Negatief gekantelde trog beweegt over Zuidwest-Europa richting de westelijke Middellandse Zee gedurende de nacht.
- Detailbespreking:
- Griekenland en Offshore Gebieden:
- Bovenluchtdrukgebied analyse begin: Zuidwest van Griekenland, verschuift zuidoost.
- Onstabiele vochtige lucht naar Zuid/Oost Griekenland.
- Zwakken wind in grenslaag, stromingsrichting noordoost tijdens de dag.
- Stilte in stormbeweging leidt tot storingen en mogelijke lokale waterschade door regen.
- Waterspouts mogelijk langs de kust.
- Lokale regenpieken boven 200 l/qm mogelijk, flash floods zijn lokaal mogelijk.
- Portugal en Spanje:
- Bovenlucht trog met bijbehorende koufront zorgt voor complex weersverwachting.
- Warmtefront brengt vochtige lucht van de Golf van Cádiz naar Portugal/Zuid-Spanje.
- Instabiliteit door dagelijkse opwarming: MUCAPE 400-800 J/kg binnenland, >1000 J/kg in Zuid-Portugal/Zuidwest-Spanje.
- Imposante windschering: DLS tot 30 m/s, 0-3 km schering 20-30 m/s, LL schering tot 15 m/s.
- Georganiseerde convectie mogelijk met rechtlijnige hodograaf/CAPE en verbeterde SRH/CAPE overlap.
- Verhoogd tornado/regen en windstoten risico vanaf 06Z over Portugal.
- Hoofd risico's: Tornado, zware regen, hagel vanuit meer discrete cellen of lijnonderbrekingen.
- Ook snel bewegende buien met rotatie mogelijk richting centraal Spanje.
- Risico's ook voor noordoost Spanje in de nacht: Zware regen, hagel en een zwakke tornado in kustgebieden.
- Geen gecompleteerde Level 2 waarschuwing door onzekerheden in warmte en stormtype.
- Geen dekking voor niet-onweersachtig zware regen in Noord-Portugal en windrisico in berggebieden door Estofex.