Actuele ESTOFEX-verwachting
Estofex is een collectief van meteorologen en meteorologiestudenten, dat iedere dag een verwachting uitgeeft voor convectief weer in Europa. Hoewel de organisatie niet als oogmerk heeft om te waarschuwen, wordt de verwachting wel beschouwd als zeer uitgebreid en waardevol voor menig onweerverwachting. Hieronder kun je de meest recente verwachting zien die door Estofex is uitgeschreven. De verwachting is in het Engels opgesteld.
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2
Storm Forecast
Geschreven door: TUSCHY
Geldig vanaf: 14 okt. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 15 okt. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
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Geldig vanaf: 14 okt. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 15 okt. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
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Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
A level 2 was issued for the Balearic Islands and offshore areas E mainly for excessive rain.
A level 2 was issued for NE Sardegna and E Corsica mainly for excessive rain.
A level 1 surrounds both level 2 areas with a similar hazard, but lowered probabilities. In addition we expect numerous waterspout reports.
SYNOPSIS
Weak dynamics prevail over the W Mediterranean, so the messy pattern with hard to forecast QPF maxima continues. As seen yesterday, a tad stronger capping than anticipated and a weaker upper wave both resulted in less thunderstorms over most of the Balearic Islands in an otherwise favorable environment for organized DMC activity.
Yesterday's filling low-amplitude wave shifts E atop the W Mediterranean and crosses Sardegna and then Sicily E/SE while dissolving. At the same time another mid/upper trough takes shape over S France and starts to move SE over the W Mediterranean Sea during the overnight hours. This structuring trough is already present in latest remote-sensing data.
IFS-ENS has only weak signals for a surface response with the first wave although WRF-NMM keeps a meandering weak depression S of the Balearic Islands for most of the forecast period with other models indicating more of a zonal MSLP channel offshore of N Africa with embedded smaller-scale vortices.
The story turns more coherent with the approaching second wave from the NW, where more focused MSLP signals in the ENS emerge over the Tyrrhenian Sea. This results in a dominant cyclonic flow regime atop the W Mediterranean for the night. At the same time we see a weak/modest Scirocco event over the Strait of Sicily. All that results in various mesoscale convergence zones with one pointing from the Balearic Islands E towards Sardegna and another one organizing E/SE of Sardegna.
Elsewhere, the hostile conditions for DMC activity persist over most of Europe as a cooler/drier northerly flow regime between the blocking anticyclone over NW Europe and an extensive upper low over E Europe/W Russia persists.
DISCUSSION
W to CNTRL Mediterranean
Atop the Balearic Islands, initial high-energetic airmass with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg (e.g. Mallorca-Son Bonet with 2195 J/kg, yesterday at 12Z) advects E betimes in response to the structuring cyclonic flow regime and attendant more N-erly BL flow.
Ongoing from the previous night expect numerous erratic (but overall eastward creeping) thunderstorms within weak shear and adequate CAPE. The risk for locally back-building convection is still present and if we get such a training cluster next to/over one of these Islands, we could once again see hourly rainfall amounts in the 50-80 l/qm range. We kept the level 2 confined to the eastern Islands, where the more humid airmass sticks around longer and where some models have more focused BL convergence along the periphery of the mentioned LL vortex/low pressure channel.
The other area of interest evolves during the evening into the overnight hours E of Sardegna and atop the Tyrrhenian Sea. Strengthening southerly BL flow with moisture advection and more focused positive thickness advection ahead of the approaching upper wave from the NW create a broad area with slow moving to temporarily back-building convection with heavy to excessive rain. Shear especially in the lowest 3 km is a tad stronger than further W, so even transient storm rotation along a convergence zone with deviating storm motion is possible.
This should be mainly an offshore risk as clustering convection shifts S with laid out outflow boundaries serving as foci for temporal training. The overall coast-parallel BL flow E of Sardegna should keep the training risk more offshore and confined to the S part of Sardegna.
Beyond midnight, as the BL flow turns more easterly over Corsica and NE Sardegna in respoonse to the cyclonic flow regime, a training coastal convection risk increases and we could see a few localized 80-100 l/qm sub-6 hourly rainfall amounts with potential flash flooding. This time frame caused a local level 2 upgrade. Otherwise we kept the offshore convection in a broad level 1 with less obvious foci for more concentrated activity (e.g. Balearic Islands E has a focused moisture/wind confluence, which increased confidence for a level 2).
During the end of the forecast we expect a few slow moving thunderstorms S of the Gulf of Squillace but this risk does not yet need any level area.
We added parts of Sicily to a level 1 mainly to cover the EZ model suite, which is enthusiatic in sparking daytime thunderstorms during the passage of the dissolving first wave and nocturnal clusters from the NW, which approach during the end of the forecast. The rain risk will be of most concern.
S Greece could see a few slow moving coastal thunderstorms with heavy rain but the general risk is too spotty for a level 1 upgrade.
Parts of N Algeria/Tunisia will see a few high-based thunderstorms with a few strong to severe downburst gusts and isolated hail.
All those areas could see a few waterspout events mainly along focused LL convergence zones.
A level 2 was issued for NE Sardegna and E Corsica mainly for excessive rain.
A level 1 surrounds both level 2 areas with a similar hazard, but lowered probabilities. In addition we expect numerous waterspout reports.
SYNOPSIS
Weak dynamics prevail over the W Mediterranean, so the messy pattern with hard to forecast QPF maxima continues. As seen yesterday, a tad stronger capping than anticipated and a weaker upper wave both resulted in less thunderstorms over most of the Balearic Islands in an otherwise favorable environment for organized DMC activity.
Yesterday's filling low-amplitude wave shifts E atop the W Mediterranean and crosses Sardegna and then Sicily E/SE while dissolving. At the same time another mid/upper trough takes shape over S France and starts to move SE over the W Mediterranean Sea during the overnight hours. This structuring trough is already present in latest remote-sensing data.
IFS-ENS has only weak signals for a surface response with the first wave although WRF-NMM keeps a meandering weak depression S of the Balearic Islands for most of the forecast period with other models indicating more of a zonal MSLP channel offshore of N Africa with embedded smaller-scale vortices.
The story turns more coherent with the approaching second wave from the NW, where more focused MSLP signals in the ENS emerge over the Tyrrhenian Sea. This results in a dominant cyclonic flow regime atop the W Mediterranean for the night. At the same time we see a weak/modest Scirocco event over the Strait of Sicily. All that results in various mesoscale convergence zones with one pointing from the Balearic Islands E towards Sardegna and another one organizing E/SE of Sardegna.
Elsewhere, the hostile conditions for DMC activity persist over most of Europe as a cooler/drier northerly flow regime between the blocking anticyclone over NW Europe and an extensive upper low over E Europe/W Russia persists.
DISCUSSION
W to CNTRL Mediterranean
Atop the Balearic Islands, initial high-energetic airmass with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg (e.g. Mallorca-Son Bonet with 2195 J/kg, yesterday at 12Z) advects E betimes in response to the structuring cyclonic flow regime and attendant more N-erly BL flow.
Ongoing from the previous night expect numerous erratic (but overall eastward creeping) thunderstorms within weak shear and adequate CAPE. The risk for locally back-building convection is still present and if we get such a training cluster next to/over one of these Islands, we could once again see hourly rainfall amounts in the 50-80 l/qm range. We kept the level 2 confined to the eastern Islands, where the more humid airmass sticks around longer and where some models have more focused BL convergence along the periphery of the mentioned LL vortex/low pressure channel.
The other area of interest evolves during the evening into the overnight hours E of Sardegna and atop the Tyrrhenian Sea. Strengthening southerly BL flow with moisture advection and more focused positive thickness advection ahead of the approaching upper wave from the NW create a broad area with slow moving to temporarily back-building convection with heavy to excessive rain. Shear especially in the lowest 3 km is a tad stronger than further W, so even transient storm rotation along a convergence zone with deviating storm motion is possible.
This should be mainly an offshore risk as clustering convection shifts S with laid out outflow boundaries serving as foci for temporal training. The overall coast-parallel BL flow E of Sardegna should keep the training risk more offshore and confined to the S part of Sardegna.
Beyond midnight, as the BL flow turns more easterly over Corsica and NE Sardegna in respoonse to the cyclonic flow regime, a training coastal convection risk increases and we could see a few localized 80-100 l/qm sub-6 hourly rainfall amounts with potential flash flooding. This time frame caused a local level 2 upgrade. Otherwise we kept the offshore convection in a broad level 1 with less obvious foci for more concentrated activity (e.g. Balearic Islands E has a focused moisture/wind confluence, which increased confidence for a level 2).
During the end of the forecast we expect a few slow moving thunderstorms S of the Gulf of Squillace but this risk does not yet need any level area.
We added parts of Sicily to a level 1 mainly to cover the EZ model suite, which is enthusiatic in sparking daytime thunderstorms during the passage of the dissolving first wave and nocturnal clusters from the NW, which approach during the end of the forecast. The rain risk will be of most concern.
S Greece could see a few slow moving coastal thunderstorms with heavy rain but the general risk is too spotty for a level 1 upgrade.
Parts of N Algeria/Tunisia will see a few high-based thunderstorms with a few strong to severe downburst gusts and isolated hail.
All those areas could see a few waterspout events mainly along focused LL convergence zones.
De onderstaande tekst is automatisch vertaald en aangepast om het beter leesbaar te maken voor onze lezers. De inhoud kan daarom verschillen van de originele tekst. Er kunnen geen rechten worden ontleend aan onze teksten, zie disclaimer.
- Level 2 waarschuwingen zijn uitgegeven voor de Balearen en oostelijke delen van de zee voornamelijk voor overmatige regen.
- Level 2 waarschuwingen zijn ook uitgegeven voor Noordoost-Sardinië en Oost-Corsica voor overmatige regen.
- Level 1 gebied omringt beide Level 2 gebieden met vergelijkbare gevaren, maar lagere waarschijnlijkheden. Bovendien worden veel waterspout meldingen verwacht.
SYNOPSIS
Zwakke dynamiek heerst over de westelijke Middellandse Zee, waardoor het moeilijk blijft om neerslagmaxima te voorspellen. Gisteren zorgden sterkere 'capping' en een zwakker bovenstroompatroon voor minder onweersbuien boven de Balearen ondanks een gunstige omgeving voor georganiseerde DMC-activiteit.
Een lage amplitude golf beweegt naar het oosten over de Middellandse Zee en lost op, terwijl een andere trog zich vormt boven Zuid-Frankrijk en naar het zuidoosten beweegt. De IFS-ENS geeft zwakke signalen voor een oppervlakte-reactie, terwijl andere modellen een zwakke depressie zuidelijk van de Balearen voorspellen.
Een tweede golf uit de noordwesten brengt meer samenhang in de signalen voor een cyclonale stroming over de westelijke Middellandse Zee voor de nacht. Dit zorgt voor verschillende mesoschaalconvergentiezones, waaronder een van de Balearen naar het oosten richting Sardinië.
Elders in Europa blijven vijandige omstandigheden voor DMC-activiteit bestaan vanwege een koelere/droge noordelijke stroming.
DISCUSSIE
West naar Centraal Middellandse Zee
Boven de Balearen voert een energierijke luchtmassa vocht aan naar het oosten als gevolg van een cyclonale stroming. Dit zorgt voor erratische onweersbuien met lokaal back-building convectie, wat kan resulteren in neerslag van 50-80 l/qm per uur.
Een ander gebied van interesse ontwikkelt zich 's avonds naar de nacht ten oosten van Sardinië en boven de Tyrreense Zee. Dit leidt tot langzame, tijdelijk terugtrekkende convectie met zware regen, voornamelijk offshore.
Na middernacht neemt het risico op kustconventie toe boven Corsica en Noordoost-Sardinië, met mogelijke 80-100 l/qm regen binnen 6 uur, wat kan leiden tot lokale overstromingen.
Aan het einde van de voorspelling worden enkele langzaam bewegende onweersbuien ten zuiden van de Golf van Squillace verwacht, zonder noodzaak voor een waarschuwing.
Delen van Sicilië zijn toegevoegd aan een Level 1 waarschuwing voor neerslagrisico's.
Zuid-Griekenland zou enkele langzaam bewegende kustonweersbuien kunnen zien, maar het risico is te verspreid voor een waarschuwing.
Delen van Noord-Algerije en Tunesië kunnen enkele hoog gebaseerde onweersbuien zien met sterke windstoten en geïsoleerde hagel.
In al deze gebieden zijn waterspouts mogelijk langs geconcentreerde convergentiezones.
2
Extended Forecast
Geschreven door: TUSCHY
Geldig vanaf: 15 okt. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 16 okt. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
Geldig vanaf: 15 okt. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 16 okt. 08:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
A level 2 was issued for E Sardegna and another one for Sicily and parts of S Italy mainly for excessive rain.
A level 1 surrounds both level 2 for similar hazards with lowered probabilities. A few waterspout events are possible next to isolated gusts with coastal convection.
SYNOPSIS
The yesterday mentioned structuring upper trough over the W Mediterranean Sea shifts leisurely SE during the forecast before broadening and turning quasi-stationary, as it awaits the next SE-ward racing Scandinavian trough, which could pick up at least parts of the trough's energy. The net result would be an induced eastward motion towards the Balkan States (beyond our forecast period).
In the meantime, we see a growing signal for a structuring depression SE of Sardegna, which is reflected both in ensemble data like IFS-ENS but also in numerous deterministic outputs. This vortex spin-up seems more like the collecting of various shallow positive PV anomalies over the W/CNTRL Mediterranean, which converge downstream of the upper trough and beneath the left exit region of a weak upper jet just S of Sardegna.
No change regarding the more hostile pattern for DMC activity over the rest of Europe with an ongoing highly amplified synoptic-scale wave pattern (blocking anticyclone over NW Europe and re-enforced troughing over Scandinavia into E Europe/W Russia).
Of concern is the advection of a moist/unstable airmass towards the Tyrrhenian Sea and therefore into the periphery of this evolving depression. A cocoon of humid/unstable air beneath the broadening and temporarily stationary upper trough creates a window of opportunity for a warm-core driven vortex to evolve with this mentioned depression due to the long lasting duration of diurnal driven clustering convection. It has to be seen where/when a more stable LL vortex evolves, which could then organize into a tropical-like cyclone. Latest guidance takes this vortex over the S-Tyrrhenian Sea in the Thursday/Friday time-frame, which is beyond our current guidance.
Independent of this potential development, the general setup has an high potential for regional excessive rainfall events with localized significant flash flooding over parts of S Italy.
DISCUSSION
CNTRL Mediterranean
High uncertainties with this forecast persist and exist. The main question will be, which shallow positive PV anomaly becomes the main player during this forecast period. Either a growing MCV from the previous night could turn into a more dominant vortex or the mentioned signal of a LL vortex driven by the synoptic field could result in a structuring vortex. Dependant on its placement and strength, we deal with various scenarios of the expected wind field, which affects shear and placement of convergence zones but also the potential development of confined deformation bands along the periphery of any vortex.
When we combine ensemble and deterministic data, the current foci for training convection with excessive amounts arise
- over E Sardegna, in case we see a structuring vortex S and later SE of the Island, shifting E. Persistent easterly onshore flow with strengthening low-tropospheric flow and adequate CAPE create a confined swath for excessive rain. This risk lowers in case we see a more easterly placed vortex (SE Tyrrhenian Sea) growing out of an MCV event.
- along the coasts of Sicily and S Calabria, into the western Gulf of Taranto, where constantly strengthening southerly winds advect a moist/unstable airmass onshore. Coastal convergence serves as main reason for training convection but capping issues (especially over Sicily) could result in only a few/confined but intense clusters.
- offshore over the S Tyrrhenian Sea, where slow moving large thunderstorm clusters bring excessive rain, especially next to any more dominant vortex.
Any back-building cluster can produce hourly rainfall amounts in the 80-150 l/qm range with sub-6 hourly amounts in the 150-300 l/qm range. These amounts were observed during the past few days on a very local scale over the W Mediterranean with extreme gradients of rainfall amounts. Significant and life-threatening flash flooding is possible on a local scale with these amounts although it has to be emphasized, that only small parts of the level 2 area will see such extreme amounts. Right now the highest concern for such an event exists over extreme NE Sicily into S Calabria.
Coastal/offshore convection also poses a waterspout and gust risk.
The Gulf of Termini Imerese to the Gulf of Gioia were excluded from the level 2 as dried and better capped air keeps CI lower compared to the rest of the area. This dry bullseye is seen in ensemble and deterministic data.
Please be aware that these conditions spread gradually E beyond 06Z and affect the Ionian Sea thereafter. Please follow later updates (if any will be issued) and your local NMS for more information. Also keep in mind the potential development of a tropical-like vortex over the S Tyrrhenian Sea.
A level 1 surrounds both level 2 for similar hazards with lowered probabilities. A few waterspout events are possible next to isolated gusts with coastal convection.
SYNOPSIS
The yesterday mentioned structuring upper trough over the W Mediterranean Sea shifts leisurely SE during the forecast before broadening and turning quasi-stationary, as it awaits the next SE-ward racing Scandinavian trough, which could pick up at least parts of the trough's energy. The net result would be an induced eastward motion towards the Balkan States (beyond our forecast period).
In the meantime, we see a growing signal for a structuring depression SE of Sardegna, which is reflected both in ensemble data like IFS-ENS but also in numerous deterministic outputs. This vortex spin-up seems more like the collecting of various shallow positive PV anomalies over the W/CNTRL Mediterranean, which converge downstream of the upper trough and beneath the left exit region of a weak upper jet just S of Sardegna.
No change regarding the more hostile pattern for DMC activity over the rest of Europe with an ongoing highly amplified synoptic-scale wave pattern (blocking anticyclone over NW Europe and re-enforced troughing over Scandinavia into E Europe/W Russia).
Of concern is the advection of a moist/unstable airmass towards the Tyrrhenian Sea and therefore into the periphery of this evolving depression. A cocoon of humid/unstable air beneath the broadening and temporarily stationary upper trough creates a window of opportunity for a warm-core driven vortex to evolve with this mentioned depression due to the long lasting duration of diurnal driven clustering convection. It has to be seen where/when a more stable LL vortex evolves, which could then organize into a tropical-like cyclone. Latest guidance takes this vortex over the S-Tyrrhenian Sea in the Thursday/Friday time-frame, which is beyond our current guidance.
Independent of this potential development, the general setup has an high potential for regional excessive rainfall events with localized significant flash flooding over parts of S Italy.
DISCUSSION
CNTRL Mediterranean
High uncertainties with this forecast persist and exist. The main question will be, which shallow positive PV anomaly becomes the main player during this forecast period. Either a growing MCV from the previous night could turn into a more dominant vortex or the mentioned signal of a LL vortex driven by the synoptic field could result in a structuring vortex. Dependant on its placement and strength, we deal with various scenarios of the expected wind field, which affects shear and placement of convergence zones but also the potential development of confined deformation bands along the periphery of any vortex.
When we combine ensemble and deterministic data, the current foci for training convection with excessive amounts arise
- over E Sardegna, in case we see a structuring vortex S and later SE of the Island, shifting E. Persistent easterly onshore flow with strengthening low-tropospheric flow and adequate CAPE create a confined swath for excessive rain. This risk lowers in case we see a more easterly placed vortex (SE Tyrrhenian Sea) growing out of an MCV event.
- along the coasts of Sicily and S Calabria, into the western Gulf of Taranto, where constantly strengthening southerly winds advect a moist/unstable airmass onshore. Coastal convergence serves as main reason for training convection but capping issues (especially over Sicily) could result in only a few/confined but intense clusters.
- offshore over the S Tyrrhenian Sea, where slow moving large thunderstorm clusters bring excessive rain, especially next to any more dominant vortex.
Any back-building cluster can produce hourly rainfall amounts in the 80-150 l/qm range with sub-6 hourly amounts in the 150-300 l/qm range. These amounts were observed during the past few days on a very local scale over the W Mediterranean with extreme gradients of rainfall amounts. Significant and life-threatening flash flooding is possible on a local scale with these amounts although it has to be emphasized, that only small parts of the level 2 area will see such extreme amounts. Right now the highest concern for such an event exists over extreme NE Sicily into S Calabria.
Coastal/offshore convection also poses a waterspout and gust risk.
The Gulf of Termini Imerese to the Gulf of Gioia were excluded from the level 2 as dried and better capped air keeps CI lower compared to the rest of the area. This dry bullseye is seen in ensemble and deterministic data.
Please be aware that these conditions spread gradually E beyond 06Z and affect the Ionian Sea thereafter. Please follow later updates (if any will be issued) and your local NMS for more information. Also keep in mind the potential development of a tropical-like vortex over the S Tyrrhenian Sea.
De onderstaande tekst is automatisch vertaald en aangepast om het beter leesbaar te maken voor onze lezers. De inhoud kan daarom verschillen van de originele tekst. Er kunnen geen rechten worden ontleend aan onze teksten, zie disclaimer.
- Een level 2 is uitgegeven voor Oost-Sardinië en een ander voor Sicilië en delen van Zuid-Italië, voornamelijk vanwege overmatige regen.
- Een level 1 omringt beide level 2-gebieden voor vergelijkbare gevaren, maar met verminderde kansen. Enkele waterspout-incidenten zijn mogelijk naast geïsoleerde windstoten met kustconfectie.
- De bovenste trogstructuur die gisteren werd genoemd boven de westelijke Middellandse Zee, verplaatst zich langzaam naar het zuidoosten en wordt stationair. Dit wacht op de volgende trog uit Scandinavië.
- Er is een signaal voor het ontstaan van een depressie ten zuidoosten van Sardinië, te zien in zowel ensemble- als deterministische gegevens.
- Er is een aanvoer van vochtige/onstabiele lucht naar de Tyrrheense Zee, met risico op zware regenval in Zuidoost-Italië.
- In de centrale Middellandse Zee zijn er hoge onzekerheden. Belangrijkste vraag is welke positieve PV-afwijking de overhand krijgt.
-
Belangrijke regenval kan optreden bij:
- Oost-Sardinië bij een structurerende vortex ten zuiden van het eiland.
- Langs de kusten van Sicilië en Zuid-Calabrië door zuidelijke wind die vochtige lucht aanvoert.
- Offshore in de Zuid-Tyrrheense Zee, met langzame onweersclusters.
- Er kunnen extreme regenvalhoeveelheden voorkomen met kans op gevaarlijke overstromingen op lokale schaal.
- Kust-/offshore convectie brengt ook het risico op waterspouts en windstoten met zich mee.
- De regio's van de Golf van Termini Imerese tot de Golf van Gioia zijn uitgesloten van level 2 door droge en beter afgedekte lucht.
- Verwacht geleidelijke verspreiding van deze omstandigheden naar het oosten voorbij 06Z en daarna de Ionische Zee beïnvloedend.