Actuele ESTOFEX-verwachting
Estofex is een collectief van meteorologen en meteorologiestudenten, dat iedere dag een verwachting uitgeeft voor convectief weer in Europa. Hoewel de organisatie niet als oogmerk heeft om te waarschuwen, wordt de verwachting wel beschouwd als zeer uitgebreid en waardevol voor menig onweerverwachting. Hieronder kun je de meest recente verwachting zien die door Estofex is uitgeschreven. De verwachting is in het Engels opgesteld.
1
Storm Forecast
Geschreven door: TUSCHY
Geldig vanaf: 29 apr. 06:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 30 apr. 06:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
Geldig vanaf: 29 apr. 06:00 (Lokale tijd)
Geldig tot: 30 apr. 06:00 (Lokale tijd)
Bron: www.estofex.org
Veranderingen:
Geen veranderingen aangebracht behalve het leesbaar maken van datums en het opmaken van de tekst
A level 1 was issued for parts of Spain and far NE Portugal mainly for a few large hail events.
A level 1 was issued for parts of the Atlas Mountains mainly for large hail and strong to severe gusts.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
The persistent blocking anticyclone over NW Europe/Scandinavia persists with a deep trough and attendand cold air intrusion over E Europe into W Russia. In addition, weak ridging extends S from the Scandinavian anticyclone and connects to a subtropical anticyclone over N-CNTRL Africa.
Two upper lows over far W Europe rotate in Fujiwhara fashion to the W/SW and E/NE with the southern one affecting Portugal and Spain during the day. This lifting vortex opens up into a filling trough, so relaxing kinematics are forecast over the Iberian Peninsula during the forecast.
Both, onshore moisture advection from the S and mid-level lapse rates feature only modest peaks, which offers MUCAPE values just a bit above the background climatology. A 50-60 kt mid-level speed maximum is attached along the base of this vortex/trough and ejects NE rather late during the day, when MUCAPE decreases already. Nevertheless, there is a confined time period with improving shear and still adequate MUCAPE, which exists from E/NE Portugal into CNTRL Spain.
Modest MUCAPE in the 400-800 J/kg range with 15 m/s (ICON) to locally 20 m/s (EZ) DLS and ELs up to 9km AGL offer an adequate background for a few large hail events in the 2-3 cm range. However, weak CIN and scattered CI should hamper the overall hail rik. Some sub-severe gusts are also possible. A low-end tornado risk exists with moderate CAPE3, low LCLs and pockets of enhanced 0-1 km SRH, but the final risk will probably depend on mesoscale/storm-internal dynamics. The severe risk diminishes beyond sunset.
For far NW France, a NW-ward surging warm front becomes the focus for isolated CI during the evening into the overnight hours. Dependant on how far E convection evolves, a temporal risk for organized updrafts exists with elevated MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and effective 10 m/s DLS. The main risk will be isolated large hail and strong gusts, before heavy (but non-severe) rain becomes the main risk as convection clusters betimes. The dominant elevated storm mode precludes a level 1 area.
Despite geopotential height increase during the day, initial modest thickness values should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the daytime hours along the orography. Meager 10 m/s DLS gets offset by up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, so a large hail and strong to severe downburst risk exists with initiating cells.
The rest of the lightning areas experiences either weak shear or CAPE or both, so nothing severe is forecast.
A level 1 was issued for parts of the Atlas Mountains mainly for large hail and strong to severe gusts.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
The persistent blocking anticyclone over NW Europe/Scandinavia persists with a deep trough and attendand cold air intrusion over E Europe into W Russia. In addition, weak ridging extends S from the Scandinavian anticyclone and connects to a subtropical anticyclone over N-CNTRL Africa.
Two upper lows over far W Europe rotate in Fujiwhara fashion to the W/SW and E/NE with the southern one affecting Portugal and Spain during the day. This lifting vortex opens up into a filling trough, so relaxing kinematics are forecast over the Iberian Peninsula during the forecast.
Both, onshore moisture advection from the S and mid-level lapse rates feature only modest peaks, which offers MUCAPE values just a bit above the background climatology. A 50-60 kt mid-level speed maximum is attached along the base of this vortex/trough and ejects NE rather late during the day, when MUCAPE decreases already. Nevertheless, there is a confined time period with improving shear and still adequate MUCAPE, which exists from E/NE Portugal into CNTRL Spain.
Modest MUCAPE in the 400-800 J/kg range with 15 m/s (ICON) to locally 20 m/s (EZ) DLS and ELs up to 9km AGL offer an adequate background for a few large hail events in the 2-3 cm range. However, weak CIN and scattered CI should hamper the overall hail rik. Some sub-severe gusts are also possible. A low-end tornado risk exists with moderate CAPE3, low LCLs and pockets of enhanced 0-1 km SRH, but the final risk will probably depend on mesoscale/storm-internal dynamics. The severe risk diminishes beyond sunset.
For far NW France, a NW-ward surging warm front becomes the focus for isolated CI during the evening into the overnight hours. Dependant on how far E convection evolves, a temporal risk for organized updrafts exists with elevated MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and effective 10 m/s DLS. The main risk will be isolated large hail and strong gusts, before heavy (but non-severe) rain becomes the main risk as convection clusters betimes. The dominant elevated storm mode precludes a level 1 area.
Despite geopotential height increase during the day, initial modest thickness values should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the daytime hours along the orography. Meager 10 m/s DLS gets offset by up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, so a large hail and strong to severe downburst risk exists with initiating cells.
The rest of the lightning areas experiences either weak shear or CAPE or both, so nothing severe is forecast.
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